00:00 Speaker A
Josh, eh, we have these new trade heads this morning that in theory should be positive for the market with Finance Scott Beson Minister Scott Beson who says that next week, next Monday and Tuesday, he will meet Chinese counterparts in Stockholm to continue to talk about UH, perhaps after a dodel of 12 August. That is the different deadline for China. And you know, if this head had fallen, maybe even a month ago, we might have seen a positive response to the markets. We did that.
00:49 Speaker B
Gradual. So what we see this morning, it really seems to be a continuation of a recent trend that we have followed and written a bit about in the past month, what markets are that simply does not move so much on trade agreements, on trade news, whether Trump sends a letter or something new as we get this morning. So the team at Goldman Sachs, David Costin and his stock strategy team have actually analyzed how the S&P 500 responded to different headlines. You can see there in the top, so the S&P 500 is in green, a basket with tariff risk -related shares is in purple. Of course that tariff risk -related bucket has moved much more in recent months, right? You can see that great movement of 11%, 11% decrease on Liberation Day. But what is interesting to point out here are the bottom two categories. So rate letters, and then other information that came out on July 13. You saw the tariff basket only 1% move on one of those, 0% on the next, the S&P 500 actually did not go on one of those days. So what we are learning now, at least it seems to be what the market tells us, is the conversation of deals and kind of this abstract nature of We are not really certain what happens, it no longer moved from the market. If you think what the market moved from China a few weeks ago, it would be Nvidia, perhaps free to sell those H20 chips again, right? Some tangible fundamental news that we can understand how it would help the company. But the broad stroke at a high level, we are planning to speak, we may be closer to a deal. That simply has no influence on the markets as it was in April and in May.
