China is now reporting that nearly 60,000 people have died from COVID-19 since early December, when the country abruptly abandoned its zero-COVID policy and omicron subvariants began ripping through its population. The new death toll is a stark revision of China’s previously reported figure for the period, which was just 37. But experts remain skeptical that the new, much larger count is a full accounting, and the World Health Organization continues to urge the country to release more data.
Speaking at a press conference in Beijing on Saturday, Jiao Yahui, director of medical administration for China’s National Health Commission (NHC), told reporters that the country recorded 59,938 COVID-related deaths between Dec. 8 and Jan. 12. respiratory failure, and 54,435 were associated with underlying conditions, such as cancer and cardiovascular disease.
The new numbers double the number of COVID-19 deaths in the country, specifically due to respiratory failure from COVID-19, bringing the pandemic total to 10,775. Previously, those deaths — those due to respiratory failure or pneumonia from COVID-19 — were the only deaths China counted as caused by COVID-19, drawing criticism from WHO officials, who called the classification “too narrow.”
While releasing data on Saturday, WHO released a statement saying its Director General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, met with NHC director Ma Xiaowei to receive the new information directly. The WHO said it appreciated the communication and welcomed the new data, but pressed for more.
The WHO is analyzing this information, which covers early December 2022 to [January 12, 2023]and provides a better understanding of the epidemiological situation and the impact of this wave in China,” the agency wrote. It added that the data appears to suggest that the number of cases is generally declining and that the peak was much like the towering omicron waves seen elsewhere, such as the one in the US last January.
But the WHO noted gaps in the data, saying it has “called for a more detailed breakdown of the data by province over time”. The agency also noted that it was again urging China for more genetic sequence data to monitor the emergence of new variants.
In comments to The Washington Post on Monday, Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19, said the new death toll is sad, but clearly not the whole picture. She noted that it only seems to include deaths in hospitals, not all deaths elsewhere, such as in homes. “It’s really sad to see 60,000 hospital-related deaths in the last month, but that should be considered the minimum.”
While a jump from 37 to nearly 60,000 reported deaths since early December is surprising, the latest figure is still significantly lower than modeled estimates, which put China’s death toll in the hundreds of thousands in the current surge. Numerous models have predicted that the country will see more than 1 million deaths by the end of the wave in the coming weeks.
Still, Van Kerkhove noted to the Post that the weekend’s revelations were important confirmation regarding WHO’s recent push to get more data from China: “It tells us that this data exists.”
