President Biden is dropping out of the 2024 race and backing Vice President Harris to take over in November, raising the question of what the polls can tell us about her chances against former President Trump.
While Harris still needs to win enough delegates before the party’s national convention next month to get the official endorsement, she is now the heir apparent, a relief to many Democrats who have been alarmed by Biden’s poor poll numbers in recent weeks.
But the vice president would face her own challenges if she were to run directly against Trump, according to the latest polling from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) and The Hill.
Trump, who formally accepted the Republican nomination at the GOP convention last week, has a 2-point lead over Harris, according to overall national polling, with 47 percent support to 45 percent. That’s about the same as Trump’s 2.5-point lead over Biden, with 46 percent support to the incumbent president’s 43.5.
With independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the race, Trump has a 6 percentage point lead over Harris: 43 percent support to 37 percent, while Kennedy is at 6 percent.
The vice president's approval rating stands at 38 percent, slightly lower than Biden's 41 percent.
“Her popularity nationally mirrors Biden’s — it’s not great,” Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ, said a week before news of Biden’s departure broke. “But her advantage is that she doesn’t have all the baggage that Biden has, and voters are going to look at her with fresh eyes.”
Trump's 2-point lead over Harris in the averages is down from 8 points at the start of the year. Other recent polls give her supporters some reason for hope.
An Economist/YouGov poll conducted in mid-July found that about 8 in 10 Democrats approve of Harris becoming the nominee if Biden leaves office. Just over a quarter said they think she has a better chance than Biden of beating Trump.
A CBS News poll released last week found Harris outperforming Biden against Trump, with Harris trailing by 3 points and Biden by 5 points.
A CNN poll released after the first presidential debate, in which Biden’s disappointing performance revived talk of him being de-listed, showed Harris closer to Trump than Biden, coming in just 2 points behind the former president, while Biden trailed by 6 points.
The vice president led Trump by one point in a survey released earlier this month, according to Democratic polling firm Bendixen & Amandi Inc.
Harris is also “the easiest” of the prominent Democrats being floated as the hypothetical nominee to take Biden’s place, given the mechanics of the process, Tranter said.
Strategists have noted that she is best positioned to take over Biden's campaign apparatus and the Democratic National Committee's (DNC) fundraising system without too much legal complications, and her agenda is clearly already aligned with Biden's.
The vice president is also 59, more than 20 years younger than Biden, and a black woman — qualities that may appeal to key demographics within the Democratic base.
“If you have a young black woman on the ballot instead of Joe Biden, it really eliminates a lot of the arguments that Republicans are going to use against him. [Biden],” said Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins. “She has the ability to play on all the positives of her record without making health the primary focus.”
At the same time, hypothetical Trump-Harris polls in individual states point to an uphill battle. Biden trailed Trump in several key battleground states before dropping out of the race, and the latest numbers suggest a similarly uphill climb for Harris.
According to DDHQ averages, Trump holds a lead of about 9 points in Nevada, 7 points in Arizona and 6 points in Georgia.
Trump has a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania, 1 point in Wisconsin and less than half a point in Michigan, while Harris has a 3-point lead in Virginia.
Overall, there are still not many polls available on the Harris-Trump race, either nationally or by state. Moreover, those averages are based on six or fewer polls in each state.
DDHQ's forecasting models will remain idle for a few weeks to gather more data, the team said, given the historic change in the race.
The speculation has brought new media and voter attention to Harris, suggesting scrutiny that would only increase if she were to take Biden’s place as the party’s nominee. It remains unclear how the increased media attention might affect her polling.
Attention has already turned to who might join Harris as her running mate. While Trump’s choice for vice president wasn’t expected to have a huge impact on voters, the decision could potentially have more impact on a Harris nominee.
Tranter argued that the spotlight offers Harris “an opportunity to reset herself.”
“I don't expect the polls to show her outright beating Trump, but she's going to run a full campaign and make a fresh start, and she won't have to answer any questions about whether she's mentally capable of serving,” he said of the possibility of her becoming the nominee.
Harris must now win the support of the more than 3,800 delegates Biden won in the primary process as the party heads toward the Democratic National Convention, set for August in Chicago. While most Democratic delegates have pledged to pick Biden, they are under no obligation to do so in the unprecedented event he steps aside.
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