The growing trade war and rapid policy shifts are expected to decrease economic growth in the United States and all over the world, according to the projections released on Monday.
The resilience that was clear last year was assumed, said the organization for economic cooperation and development in its last interim -economic report, which estimated that global growth would fall to 3.1 percent in 2025 and up to 3 percent in 2026, of 3.2 percent last year. The United States will probably see a sharper decrease, fall to 2.2 percent this year and to 1.6 percent next year, of the growth of 2.8 percent in 2024.
“Some signs of weakness were created, powered by increased policy uncertainty,” said Mathias Cormann, secretary -general of the organization. “Increasing trade restrictions will contribute to higher costs, both for production and for consumption.”
President Trump has imposed rates-including a major fine of 25 percent on foreign steel and aluminum-on one-off allies such as Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Great Britain, as well as on ancient rivals such as China. Most have already issued or have threatened countermeasures. Mr. Trump sworn to impose another rates round next month.
A result of the rates is that inflation seems to rise faster than previously thought, said the OECD, in which he explained why it revised his earlier estimate, published in December. Both business trust and consumer confidence also have ebb.
The outlook for the 20 countries that use the euro is limp. This year, growth is expected to increase by 1 percent; Next year it should rise to 1.2 percent. The Grimmest -forecast is for Mexico, where growth is expected to fall this year to a negative of 1.3 percent and negative 0.6 percent in 2026.
India, on the other hand, is on their way to absorb the strongest growth, according to the OECD report, which estimates that the gross domestic product, which rose to 6.3 percent last year, will increase to 6.4 percent in 2025 and 6.6 percent in 2026. China's economy can also warn the organization in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2026.
The only potential light point is artificial intelligence, said Álvaro Santos Pereira, the most important economist of the group. AI is expected to “stimulate the growth of labor productivity in the coming decade,” he said, with even greater profits in combination with progress in robotics.
