As parts of the Caribbean brace for the impact of Tropical Storm Melissa, Florida residents should keep a close eye on the storm.
“There is significant uncertainty in Melissa's track and intensity forecast,” the National Hurricane Center continued, but added that “the chances of a major hurricane increase” as Melissa moves further southwest.
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A major hurricane is a hurricane of at least Category 3, with maximum sustained winds of 180 km per hour.
What's more certain is that Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday, Oct. 23, according to the Hurricane Center.
Could Melissa have an impact on Florida?
“The longer Melissa tracks westward, the greater the chance of an impact on the U.S.,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather's chief meteorologist.
“The chances of a direct U.S. hit from Melissa are low at this point, but it is still an option,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather's lead hurricane expert. “U.S. concerns about impacts will be on the Florida peninsula, especially in the lower peninsula and the Keys.”
Even the U.S. East Coast could see some impacts from Melissa later this month — rain, wind and rough seas — even if the center remains at sea, according to AccuWeather.
Here's what you need to know.
Highlights of what Tropical Storm Melissa is doing now
Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path from the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its effects, and the center of the storm is likely to move outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
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Location: 305 miles southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti; 954 miles southeast of Naples
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Maximum sustained wind: 50 km/h
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Movement: west-northwest at 11 km/h
Tropical Storm Melissa: what you need to know
At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 14.3 north and longitude 73.5 west.
Melissa is moving towards the west-northwest at a speed of 11 km per hour. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and northwest are expected in the coming days.
Melissa is forecast to approach Jamaica and the southwestern part of Haiti later this week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 miles per hour, with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend as far as 110 miles (170 kilometers) from the center.
Some gradual strengthening is expected over the coming days, and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday, October 23.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Melissa
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and they are not all the same. The hurricane center uses only the four or five best-performing models to help make its forecasts.
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See Map of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watches, Warnings Issued for Florida
As of 5 a.m. on October 22, no watches or warnings have been issued related to Tropical Storm Melissa for Florida or the US.
What Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings have been issued for Tropical Storm Melissa?
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A hurricane watching is in effect for:
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Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
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A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the expected first tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, usually within 48 hours.
How strong is Tropical Storm Melissa and where is it headed?
Tropical Storm Melissa has weakened and is currently moving west-northwest at a speed of 7 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center expects Melissa's speed to decrease further.
A gradual turn to the northwest or northwest is expected in the coming days. When that turn happens is important to Floridians.
Is a hurricane heading towards Florida?
“There is significant uncertainty in Melissa's track and intensity forecast,” the National Hurricane Center said.
“The longer Melissa follows west, the greater the chance of an impact on the US,” Rayno said.
“U.S. concerns about impacts will center on the Florida peninsula, especially the lower peninsula and the Keys. Strong westerly winds driven by the jet stream should prevent the storm from entering Texas, Louisiana and the panhandles of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida next week.”
“Right now, I think the chance of any direct or even indirect impact on Florida, other than waves and rip currents, is very low, about 15% or so,” DaSilva said via email on Oct. 21.
“If Florida were to see any impact, it would likely be the middle of next week – Wednesday through Friday (Oct. 29-31). Nothing is imminent at this time, but it is something to keep an eye on in the coming days as we monitor trends and model data.”
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Melissa
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Melissa is expected to bring heavy rain to parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica this weekend, raising the risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.
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Hurricane conditions are possible across Haiti's southwestern peninsula, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect lives and property should be completed by Thursday.
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There is great uncertainty in Melissa's course and intensity forecast. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
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Melissa will likely experience moderate wind shear over the next few days, offset by very warm and humid conditions in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern promotes slow intensification.
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The chance of a major hurricane increases if this forecast were to develop further to the southwest in the long distance.
Current forecast: Where will Tropical Storm Melissa go and how strong could it become?
“While there is still significant uncertainty about the intensity of the forecast, the chances of a major hurricane increase if this forecast were to develop further to the southwest over the long term,” the National Hurricane Center said.
What impact could Tropical Storm Melissa have and which areas could be affected?
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Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti starting late Thursday. Tropical storm conditions may begin in Jamaica late Thursday or Friday.
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Rainfall: Melissa is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti and eastern Jamaica through Saturday, with locally higher amounts possible. Extra heavy rainfall is possible after Saturday; However, the uncertainty about Melissa's course and driving speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.
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The northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and western Jamaica are expected to receive 2 to 10 centimeters of rain through Saturday. Aruba and Puerto Rico are expected to see 1 to 3 inches during the same period. Flooding and urban flooding will be possible at least through Saturday.
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Surfing: The swell generated by Melissa is expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba in the coming days.
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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Melissa track, intensity uncertain Wednesday
