Allan J. Lichtman, the American University historian who has predicted the outcomes of virtually every recent U.S. election and rose to fame when he accurately predicted—contrary to what pollsters said—that Donald Trump would win in 2016, was very cautious when I interviewed him about the 2024 presidential trump card.
But while he cautioned that he wouldn't make his official prediction until after Labor Day, he gave me a good tip about who has the best chance of winning the race: Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Trump.
Lichtman, who has developed a 13-key system for predicting elections — which he says is more accurate than polls — told me that “a lot would have to go wrong for the Democratic Party to lose.” Translated: Right now, Harris has the best chance of winning.
Lichtman's prediction system consists of 13 questions that each must be answered with a “true” or “false.” If the incumbent party gets a “false” on six of the 13 keys, they lose the White House.
Since he began announcing his predictions 20 years ago, he has been right in nine of the last 10 elections. He says he was right in all 10 because the 2000 election was atypical: His pick, Al Gore, won the popular vote, but the Supreme Court gave the election to George W. Bush.
Some of the 13 keys Lichtman cites are whether there is a sitting president running for office, whether there is a strong third-party candidate, and whether the economy is doing well.
“Right now, Democrats are down in only three of the six keys,” Lichtman told me. Democrats are down in the “mandate” key because they lost the House of Representatives in the 2022 election, in the “incumbent party” key because Joe Biden is no longer the nominee, and in the “charisma” key because it’s too early to tell whether Harris is charismatic, he explained.
Won’t Trump win the key to “charisma,” as terrible a human being as many of us think he is? I asked Licthman.
“He doesn't fit the definition of the (charisma) key,” Lichtman responded, “The keys require you to have broad appeal. You can't just appeal to a narrow base like Trump.”
Lichtman says he doesn't look at the polls because they are only a snapshot in time and aren't useful for predicting what will happen on Election Day.
Moreover, he says, pollsters may now be underestimating pro-Democratic votes, just as they underestimated pro-Trump votes in 2016.
“Pollsters say, ‘You know, our margin of error is arbitrary plus or minus 3% or so.’ But that’s pure statistical error,” he said. “People may lie. They may not have made up their minds. They may change their minds.”
As for surveys of donors' campaign contributions, crowd sizes or debate attendance, he told me, “Remember, by conventional measures, Hillary Clinton should have won in 2016: She raised more money, ran more ads, won all the debates, had better organization. And of course she lost.”
Will Lichtman be right again this time? I don’t plan on getting into the election prediction business, but here’s my modest guess: Harris will easily win the popular vote, and Trump — if he loses in the Electoral College — will contest the results.
He is already paving the way to contest the election by saying Harris staged an alleged illegal “coup” against Biden’s nomination, still refuses to accept his defeat in the 2020 election, and routinely praises the insurrectionists who occupied the Capitol on January 6, 2021 in an attempt to overturn the election results.
Furthermore, Trump has not committed to accepting a potentially unfavorable outcome in this year’s election. He does not abide by the rules of democracy or decency. So whatever happens, my prediction is that it will be a big mess.
Don't miss the TV show “Oppenheimer Presenta” on Sundays at 9:00 PM ET on CNN en Español. Blog: andresoppenheimer.com
