When is the end for humanity? Whether it is a nuclear holocaust, a consequence of crossing a critical climate threshold, by robots powered by artificial intelligence, or the “Don't look up” asteroid, the question plagues our thoughts, our research and our rants on Facebook.
Now a theorist is warning that the human civilization of 8.2 billion people is at a critical crossroads: teetering between what he believes will be authoritarian collapse and abundance.
“Industrial civilization faces an 'inevitable' decline as it is replaced by what could prove to be a much more advanced 'post-materialist' civilization based on distributed, abundant clean energy. The key challenge is that industrial civilization is declining so rapidly that it could derail the emergence of a new and superior 'life cycle' for the human species,” says Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, the bestselling author and journalist who is a leading colleague at the British Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, said in a statement.
Ahmed, who has spoken at United Nations summits in recent years, is the author of the article recently published in the journal Foresight.
Gaya Herrington, a vice president at Schneider Electric who was not involved in the study, said The independent that she agrees with all of Ahmed's major points.
South Florida and the Caribbean can be seen from the International Space Station. Earth, home to 8.2 billion people, could be in decline, according to a new analysis (NASA).
“We are living in a historic now-or-never moment, and what we do over the next five years will determine our level of well-being for the rest of this century,” she said.
Using scientific literature, the study offers a theory of the rise and fall of civilizations, concluding that humanity is on the cusp of the next 'great leap' in evolution, should progress not be thwarted by authoritarianism.
The research concludes that civilizations evolve through a life cycle of four stages: growth, stability, decline and eventual transformation. Today's industrial civilization, he says, is in decline.
The rise of authoritarian politics and efforts to protect the fossil fuel industry – which produces greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change – are factors that could endanger civilization, Ahmed says. The global decline in returns on energy investments is central to this decline.
Investing in carefully designed clean energy and new material capabilities such as that industry, artificial intelligence, 3D printing and lab-grown agriculture could create new forms of networked abundance – when an abundance of resources are available through networks – that protect Earth's systems. But they cannot be controlled by old, centralized industrial hierarchies, Ahmed argues.
Ultimately, he finds a widening gap between the so-called emerging new system and the 'industrial operating system', leading to political and cultural disruption and global crises.
Last October, a cooling tower was spotted at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania. Investments in clean energy could help humanity avoid collapse, says a new article (REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo)
“An astonishing new space is emerging in which humanity can provide itself with abundant energy, transportation, food and knowledge without harming the Earth. This could be the next big leap in human evolution. But if we fail to truly evolve as humans by rewiring how we manage these emerging capabilities responsibly and in the interests of all, they could be our downfall,” he warned. “Instead of evolving, we would be going backwards – if not collapsing. The rise of authoritarian and far-right governments around the world increases this serious risk of collapse.”
In his new book A Darwinian Survival Guide, Professor Daniel Brooks of the University of Toronto says that although the danger is great and time is short, people can effect change.
His perspective, he said The independent via email, is that although utopia is unattainable, an apocalypse will not occur even if a major collapse of technological humanity occurs. He believes the world has a “problem without a technological solution,” and that if a collapse occurs around 2050, the people who continue as usual “will all be blamed – regardless of politics, economics or creeds – and those who fall into it succeed in being part of the survivors and rebuilders will all share in the glory.”
“We agree with those who say we have enough technology to solve the problems now and while technological progress is helpful, the accelerating pace of global climate change is outpacing the pace of technological progress – the solution to conservation of technological humanity lies in changing our behavior. (Not electing anti-science authoritarians would be a good behavioral change at the electoral level, a point on which we agree with Dr. Ahmed),” Brooks wrote, referring to his co-author, Salvatore Agosta, associate professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.
The iconic 'Earthrise' image shows Earth appearing above the moon's horizon on Christmas Eve 1968. Scientists say Earth has exceeded six of its nine boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity (NASA)
Ahmed's article comes after dire warnings about the Earth's rapidly warming future. Last year, a team of international scientists said six of Earth's nine planetary boundaries – which define a safe operating space for humanity – have been breached.
“This update on the limits of the planet clearly shows a patient who is not feeling well, as pressure on the planet increases and vital limits are exceeded. We don't know how long we can continue to exceed these important limits before the combined pressures lead to irreversible change and damage,” said co-author Johan Rockström, director of Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Research published earlier this year found that maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions, a level that can be absorbed by nature and other carbon dioxide removal methods, is crucial by 2100 to minimize the risk of climate tipping points and to ensure planetary stability.
“Multiple wars, extreme inequality, a looming climate collapse and new technologies that could transform our existence have brought humanity to a crossroads,” Agnès Callamard, Secretary General of Amnesty International, said in September. “We no longer have time for complacency or defeatism – only a shared responsibility to save the world that we owe to future generations.”
We'll have to wait and see if there will be any other Hollywood-style research predicting the end of the world based on AI systems.
