War, cross -border conflicts and geopolitical unrest are rarely considered good for business.
Yet that seems to have been the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on two of the neighbors from the aggressor to the West – Finland and Sweden.
Of course not immediately. It was rather the reaction of the two Nordic nations to the invasion that turned fear into hope.
Both countries asked membership of the Western Defense Alliance NATO in May 2022, about three months after the winter invasion.
Less than three years later, they are both full members and pluck all the benefits, both in national security and the economy.
“We are no longer a country that cannot be trusted,” notes Micael Johansson, Chief Executive of the Swedish defense company Saab, in reference to the earlier historical neutrality of the nation.
He points out that Saab arrived at NATO in March 2024 in March 2024, although negotiating framework agreements with NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA). The NSPA is the body that organizes NATO's order of defense companies.
Mr Johansson adds that it is now much easier to gain insight into what is going on in the Alliance. “We never had access to NSPAs before,” he says.
Juka Siukosaari, the ambassador of Finland in the UK, agrees. “Being part of NATO brings us on the same basis with all other allies. It increases the possibilities for Finnish companies in the defense sector and then.”
Mr Johansson says there is a growing awareness that Europe should do more in itself [Getty Images]
Private companies will benefit from commitments by NATO member states to increase defense issues.
Currently, only 23 of the 32 Member States of the organization are currently on a target of Defense expenditure of 2% of GDP, but the ambitions have grown in recent months, but have risen in the past few weeks and days in the midst of a lot of turbulence within the Alliance.
In the midst of uncertainty about what NATO could look like in the future, there is no doubt that these higher spending obligations will remain and perhaps even strengthen if Europe decided that it could no longer rely on the US.
The NATO expenditure obligations are already ahead of those of various existing members. Last year Finland spent 2.4% and Sweden 2.2% of their respective GDP to Defense, and both want to increase this to between 2.6% and 3% in the next three years.
Examples of new NATO initiatives on the northern flank of Europe include the establishment of new NATO bases and efforts to establish joint defense groups in North Infinland.
Plus the formation of the joint Nordic Air Command, which brings Finland's, Sweden, Norway and Denmark's 250 front-line combat aircraft together under a combined command structure, with flexible basing and supported by shared intelligence.
In addition, substantial investments will be needed to supplement stocks Advanced weapon systems, including rockets and anti-tank systems, notes Mr Johansson.
And while the White House has announced a break this week in US military aid to Ukraine, European leaders have stated that they are in it for the long term, so here too we can expect substantial and continuous expenses in weapons.
Air monitoring programs and underwater systems are also increasingly demand, because the recurring tension between Russia and the West brings a new cold in the Arctic region region.
In these areas, Saab's Baas would like to promote his own solutions, such as the Globaleye Airborne Early Warning and Control Platform, and its Sea Wasp, a remote underwater vehicle that can neutralize explosive devices.
But given the strong emphasis of Donald Trump on “America First”, it is unlikely that he will be happy with European NATO members who choose Saab, or even another European defense company above American rivals.
Europe will have to balance the desire to reduce its dependence on the US with their clear need to maintain American support.
European members will also have to take into account the complexity and mutual dependencies on NATO. They often combine technologies and machines, weapons and ammunition, vehicles, crafts and ships that are produced in various NATO countries.
In a sense, the alliance is held together by complex supply chains and contractual agreements that cannot possibly be designed from one day to the next.
“The Transatlantic relationship of Europe will always remain important,” says Johansson, although he also points to a “growing realization in Europe that we have to do more”.
Nordic countries, just like other NATO members, increase their military editions [Getty Images]
“The US really protects its own defense industry, and we have to do the same in Europe,” he says, welcoming “fierce competition” between commercial defense companies.
However, much of this competition can be between relative newcomers in the defense industry.
The Finnish government agency Business Finland has published a guide that offers advice to companies about doing business with NATO.
The authors predict that the armed forces on both sides of the Atlantic will have “important new needs in services and equipment, both Hi-Tech and Lowtech”.
Many of these needs will have to be met by start-ups and small to medium-sized companies, says the guide, rather than exclusively by large, established defense companies.
Johan Sjöberg, adviser for safety and defense policy at the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, says that NATO membership has opened doors for Swedish companies, not least because “the perspective of other countries and companies [towards them] has changed “.
Mr. Sjöberg adds that he promotes a “holistic view, that security is good for business, because increased protection and long -term stability offer credibility”.
NATO has increased its activities in the Arctic [Getty Images]
Also in Finland the NATO membership has created new opportunities, especially for the abundance of small and medium-sized companies that ambassador Siukosaari calls “Nokia-Spin-Offs”.
It is expected that these increasingly offer advanced technology, such as drones, sensors and digital surveillance systems for programs such as the “drone wall” of Norway that develop six NATO members to defend their limits with Russia.
As the nature of warfare changes, the safety of Europe can indeed rely more on cyber defense and the protection of civilian installations such as system -critical seabed pipelines and cables.
But perhaps the most revolutionary idea is to come from the Northern expansion of NATO the concept of “total defense” of the region.
Also applied by Norway and Denmark, it regards national infrastructure such as internet and telephony, energy generation and distribution, road networks and secure food supplies, medicines as parts of a total defense system.
Much of this cannot be registered as Defense expenditure in the statistics, but at the same time none of that is free.
Apart from the spending of the civil infrastructure, for example, national military service sometimes takes people away from the economically productive parts of the economy, ambassador Siukosaari notes.
But perhaps what they deliver does more for the nation than purely offering products and services?
The newest members of NATO believe that they can learn a few things about Defense. They clearly offer new perspectives, both on how Defense expenditure should be measured. And perhaps also about how civil society and private companies can play their parts.
