“Large combined libraries are forcing companies to double down on proven IP because it travels, merchandises and reduces marketing risk,” said Robert Rosenberg, a partner at New York law firm Moses Singer, who focuses on intellectual property, entertainment, technology and data law.
Rosenberg also expects there will be a “shift toward” live events, sports and unscripted content “for retention” as HBO Max sells.
In the shorter term, Rory Gooderick, research manager at analyst firm Ampere Analysis, predicted that WBD will “be cautious in greenlighting new large-scale projects until” the acquisition is completed.
In addition to the potential sale of HBO Max, more merger activity could lead streaming services to deviate from their original selling point, which was to offer bolder, quirkier content.
As the industry consolidates, “sticky content” such as procedurals, reality shows and “comfort TV that encourages long viewing sessions” will become a priority among mainstream subscription-based streaming services, especially as they place more emphasis on ad subscriptions, Goodman predicted.
A more stable future?
The new year will be formative for streaming and have a lasting impact for subscribers. We've discussed countless negative implications, but there may be a silver lining. While we may see more turbulence, we will hopefully also see a path to more stable streaming options.
Streaming subscribers cannot directly stop mergers or price increases or manage streaming libraries. But as services like Netflix and Disney+ focus on becoming one-stop shops with vast libraries, there is an opportunity for other services to hone their specialties and differentiate themselves by offering unusual, unexpected and rare content at more affordable prices.
As the landscape settles, streamers must be aware of the importance of variety for subscribers. According to Bill Michels, chief product officer at Gracenote, Nielsen's content data business unit:
There will be some consolidation. But the [connected TV] landscape, including FAST and [direct-to-consumer] channels, offers more than enough video variety for viewers, so the biggest challenge will be connecting content with the right audience. Audience engagement depends on good content. Retaining viewers depends on the audience never running out of something to watch.
