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Russia's friendship with North Korea may have backfired

    • South Korea says North Korean troops are being trained by Russia to fight in Ukraine.

    • The Kremlin said cooperation between the two took place “within the framework of international law.”

    • Russia is concerned that South Korea will send weapons to help Ukraine, according to a US think tank.

    The Kremlin's alliance with North Korea may have strengthened its campaign in Ukraine, but it has come at a potentially serious cost.

    The South Korean government this week expressed its anger at the growing alliance between the two countries.

    During a meeting with Russian Ambassador Georgiy Zinoviev, South Korea demanded the withdrawal of North Korean soldiers who it said were being trained by Russia to fight in Ukraine.

    Yoon Suk Yeol, a senior official in the South Korean president's office, said Tuesday that South Korea is now considering sending weapons to help Ukrainian forces.

    In response, the Kremlin seemed eager to reassure South Korea. Zinoviev said the alliance between Russia and North Korea was “within the framework of international law.”

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the North Korea-Russia alliance “shouldn't worry anyone.” He also dismissed reports about the troop deployment as 'contradictory'.

    Earlier that day, South Korea had put pressure on the Kremlin by releasing satellite images showing 1,500 North Korean soldiers being sent to Russia.

    Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, said the Kremlin appeared concerned about the response from Seoul.

    “The Kremlin's apparent desire to reassure South Korea that its cooperation with North Korea does not pose a threat to Seoul suggests that the Kremlin remains deeply concerned about the prospect of Seoul's potential pivot to providing Ukraine with necessary military support , and on the implications of deteriorating relations with South Korea. Seoul for Russia's security interests in the Asia-Pacific region,” the analysts wrote on Monday.

    Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin toast at a banquet table.Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin toast at a banquet table.

    Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin toast at a banquet tableNorth Korean state media

    Russia's dangerous new alliance

    South Korea has been in an uneasy standoff with its isolated and authoritarian neighbor North Korea for decades.

    North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly threatened the South with the prospect of an attack, while Seoul and its ally the US have tried to isolate North Korea and thwart its nuclear weapons program.

    But Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shaken the precarious balance of power in East Asia.

    Russia forged a new military alliance with North Korea to secure much-needed ammunition from North Korean stockpiles for its faltering campaign in Ukraine.

    South Korea is increasingly concerned about the technological capabilities and security guarantees that North Korea has likely received from Russia in return.

    Russia, previously in favor of sanctions aimed at curbing North Korea's nuclear program, is now helping North Korea to circumvent them.

    Bloomberg analysts said in June that a war on the Korean Peninsula could lead to the loss of millions of lives and cost the global economy about $4 trillion.

    South Korea is a manufacturing hub for semiconductors and electronics, meaning a disruption to its economy could have huge global consequences.

    “The war in Ukraine and its consequences on the Korean Peninsula are taking a heavy toll on the relationship between Seoul and Moscow,” analyst Ellen Kim of the Center for Strategic and International Studies wrote in February.

    Noting that “several factors could put pressure on the ROK-Russia [South Korea-Russia] relationships off the cliff.”

    South Korea says it can arm Ukraine

    In response to Russia's strengthening relationship with North Korea, South Korea is threatening to arm Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion.

    Russia's new defense treaty with North Korea in June appeared to mark a tipping point, with South Korea saying it could reverse its long-standing ban on sending military aid to countries at war to help Ukraine.

    It's a threat that South Korea reiterated on Tuesday, when officials from South Korea's National Security Council warned that the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia was a “serious security threat.”

    It is a worrying prospect for Russia, with South Korea possessing vast stockpiles of weapons that could tilt the war in Kiev's favor.

    South Korea has large numbers of 155-millimeter artillery shells, a weapon that Ukraine has been desperately short of and that its Western allies have struggled to produce in sufficient quantities.

    The New York Times reported in 2023 that President Joe Biden pressured South Korea to help the country arm Ukraine with much-needed grenades, but South Korea had hesitated at the time.

    But in response to the latest escalation in North Korea-Russia cooperation, South Korea again hinted that nothing was off the table as it weighed how to respond.

    South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong Kyun said in a statement Monday that the country will respond with “all available means in cooperation with the international community to any acts that threaten South Korea's core interests.”

    Read the original article on Business Insider