Sep. 14 – There are an unusual number of rematches in the U.S. House of Representatives races this year, including several right here in Connecticut. The outcome of these contests, with both Democratic and Republican challengers trying to oust incumbents they've lost to, will help determine who wins control of Congress.
But while our own Second Congressional District race here in eastern Connecticut is headed for a rematch, it’s shaping up to be a yawn. All signs continue to point to Democrat Joe Courtney, a Democrat, easily winning his rematch with Republican challenger Mike France and returning to Washington, D.C., for a 10th term.
Courtney defeated France in 2022 by 58% to 40%. The two have agreed to debate next month.
When I last wrote about the race in early spring, I said that one indication that Courtney was worried about France would be his negative behavior toward his opponent. Courtney has not done that.
Courtney has chosen to instead emphasize his record as a political moderate in his campaign ads, particularly his work supporting submarine construction as the ranking member of the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee. Courtney also points to his support for the infrastructure bill and giving Medicare, for the first time, the ability to negotiate the prices it pays for drugs.
The current president, convinced that he has a big lead, does not want to give the French campaign any attention, even through negative attacks.
France has done a credible job of fundraising. As of the Federal Election Commission’s most recent deadline for filing campaign expenditures, June 30, the challenger had raised $489,024, all but about $29,000 of it from small, individual donations. Much of that money, however, has flowed in from other states, many of which are deep red, and through “WinRed,” a for-profit program the Republican National Committee uses to solicit donations for congressional elections. It formed WinRed in response to the Democratic Party’s successful “ActBlue” platform, which has raised a lot of money in small donations.
Perhaps that success in making rain, fundraising-wise, can be attributed to France’s hiring of Justin Clark, Trump’s deputy campaign manager in 2020, to serve as his chief campaign strategist. Still, there’s no indication that the money, once raised, has been put to good use. France had just $53,129 in cash on hand at the end of the reporting period. There’s been no campaign advertising blitz. The candidate’s campaign website is poor, with France’s biography — Navy veteran, engineer, former state legislator — but no policy positions or arguments for dumping Courtney.
Courtney had $625,000 cash on hand when the reporting period ended, putting him in a strong position to finish the race. The campaign has invested in TV and Internet ads and direct mailings. The campaign’s robust website touts his support for defense spending, education, local agriculture, veterans and expanding coverage under Obamacare.
Incumbents have a big fundraising advantage. Industries and special interests seek influence with people in power. According to a June 30 filing, Courtney's campaign had raised $846,000, about half of which came from individuals and half from special political action committees. For example, Cigna Corporation, a health insurer; the Credit Union Legislative Action Council, which represents the credit union industry; and the National Education Association's teacher-union PAC have all contributed up to $5,000.
France seems an odd choice to oust Courtney. His fiscal philosophy is so far right that it borders on libertarian. Outside of defense, France is no fan of government spending. As state Rep. Ledyard’s 42nd District representative, he’s been reluctant to support spending bills even if they bring dollars back to his district.
His choice of campaign manager showed France’s Trump-aligned affiliation, which no longer ties France to much of the district. He can be expected to be a reliable voice for Republicans if they win Congress and the presidency.
It’s hard to understand why France would think things would be different this time around. He hasn’t moved the needle in a second attempt. The Cook Political Report, for example, continues to rate the district as “solid Democrat.” Four of Connecticut’s five House district races are seen as solid Ds.
The only exception is that other Connecticut rematch, in the Fifth District. George Logan, a Republican former state senator, is again trying to defeat the incumbent Democrat, Rep. Jahana Hayes, who Cook sees as “likely to be a Democrat.”
France has a few more weeks to make a case for change. As it stands, however, it looks like another solid victory for the 10-term incumbent. It may be that Republicans can’t mount a serious challenge until Courtney drops out of the race.
Paul Choiniere is the former editor of The Day's opinion page, now retired. He can be reached at [email protected].
