00:00 Am
Last year's revision here was that the De American Labor Market had 818,000 fewer jobs than previously thought. That was a big event last year. It happened in the middle of a presidential election. And the consensus estimates are slightly lower this year, but they are still high. The consensus estimate is around 700,000, which we could see that we could learn that the labor market is 700,000 less than we thought before.
00:27 Am
But there are some estimates that are even higher than $ 900,000. And then there are additional information under the hood here, month after month numbers. Much of everything is a bit, I think we point out the question when this labor market has seen delay that we have seen this summer. How early was the switching back in essence? Was it already in this spring? It was even earlier than in last year when we saw a lot of it, this labor market softened that we saw that we have seen
01:00 Am
Real and prove this summer. How early did it start? And that that will have a lot of it, will create a lot of discussion, both in Wall Street, but also here in Washington in the White House.
01:10 Speaker A
What do we think, Ben, uh the president can respond and respond to the data?
01:19 Am
Yes, this is a very interesting aspect of this, why I am interested in this in Washington is because I think it can go a few different directions. As I said, the Revisiesuk has become an important point of criticism from Trump and his team. In short, every revision in task data is a sign that something is wrong, something is something is a miss. And it is true that the revisions have become bigger in recent years, especially after the Covid Pandemie. So there will be the kind of cup of this big overhaul
01:54 Am
And that could feed the continuous politicization of government data. There is of course a Trump that has fired the BLS Commissioner, that is where this information comes from and and their successor is UM in the Wings. But I think there is also another, this could go a kind of other direction in the sense that 10 months of this data have been in the last 10 months in function of Joe Biden. So if there is a considerable softening, the argument that you could hear from the White House that, hey, this is this delay closed
02:29 Am
Started earlier, the weakness we inherited, we just try to dig out. You could therefore claim that this is a kind of two opposite to say that the survey is fake, but that it shows that this is the fault of Biden. I would not place it beyond a Trump to do a kind of version of both. So I think that will be a really interesting thread to view tomorrow as soon as we dig a little through these numbers.
02:52 Speaker A
What do you think, Ben, finally, how does this all kinds of game go in the wider, Ben, political questions that simply circulate the baneng data that we have seen and get?
3:13 AM Am
Yes. Yes, we are quite rare that we have some sort of a large political forum for banengies, but we will have that in the coming weeks. The choice of the Trump, Trump around the Bureau of Labor Statistics, EJ Antony of the Heritage Foundation in Leiden, is planned for a hearing of the Senate. We don't have a timing of that, but we are expected in the coming weeks or months. Often this job does not even have a kind of full splendor and circumstances and circumstances of a hearing. So we're going to have a real kind of conversation
3:46 AM Am
about this and I expect this number to be central. And Tony is a pretty polarizing figure. There is much back for his choice, but also a kind of the general point of Trump here, namely that he does not believe the economic data and that we should not do that and whether people will believe it. So it will be that both comes at an important moment, but also at a time before a moment when I think many of us will look at what the legacy of
4:14 AM Am
Trump's step to dismiss the BLS commissioner is and a kind of belief in government data in the future.
