A months-long, costly disruption to global shipping may soon end as the Houthi insurgents in Yemen have indicated they have suspended their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea.
But any return to normality could take a while. Dispatch lines say they will only return to the Red Sea once they are satisfied their ships are not under attack. That could take time, as the Houthis have pledged to renew their attacks if Israel's Hamas break off or if the Houthis are targeted by Israel or the United States and its allies.
Even as cargo ships return to the Red Sea, the waterway between the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal, it may take time for shipping companies to fully restart their operations, some analysts say.
The Houthis' attacks on shipping began in late 2023 shortly after the war between Hamas and Israel began. The Houthis announced last weekend that the group would halt its attacks.
To avoid Houthi drones and missiles, shipping companies usually stopped through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Instead, ships went around the southern tip of Africa to get to Europe from Asia. That route is about 3,500 nautical miles and 10 days longer than going through the Suez, contributing to steep increases in shipping costs.
“The situation in the Suez Canal remains fluid and the security situation is unclear,” MSC, a major Swiss shipping company, said in a statement, adding that it would continue to use the longer route for now.
Maersk, a Danish shipping giant, said it would start sailing through the Red Sea when it was safe to do so. “It is too early to speculate on timing, but these developments are a necessary step in the right direction,” the company said in an email.
Analysts said such caution was understandable.
“They wouldn't want to continue the process of switching all their services to the Suez only to have it prove unsafe and then change everything back,” said Greg Miller, a senior maritime reporter for Lloyd's List, A Trade Publication.
Ship diversion has been one of the biggest shipping increases in recent times. Before the Houthi attacks, the Suez Canal handled 10 percent of global trade and more than a fifth of container shipments, according to the United Nations.
The Houthis carried out about 130 attacks on commercial ships, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Events Data, a crisis monitoring organization.
Some commercial ships continued to use the Red Sea, but most stayed away. A French logistics company, CMA CGM, sent most of its ships around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, but the company ran a weekly service via the Red Sea and Suez Canal. As a result, analysts said, CMA CGM may be the first container line to return in earnest.
“CMA CGM is closely monitoring ongoing developments in the region and hopes for a return to stability and security for all,” the company said in a statement.
As Africa takes more time, shipping companies have added more ships and voyages, so after an initial adjustment, customers still received their cargo on time. Fortunately, the companies had ordered dozens of new ships in 2021 and 2022, when they were flush with profits from the pandemic-era trading boom. With high demand for these new ships, shipping rates increased.
Now shipping companies may be faced with too many ships as each can complete trips faster. That could lower freight rates. The average shipping cost of a container is down 30 percent from last year's high, according to Freightos, a digital shipping marketplace, but it is still nearly 200 percent more than before the attacks began.
Some analysts say there could be a logjam of ships in some places as companies move ships from the longer to the shorter route.
“You're going to have too many ships at sea at the same time,” said Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime historian and associate professor at Campbell University in North Carolina. “And they would much rather come in and anchor and sit there, so what you're going to see is a congestion at the ports.”
But others said the industry would be fine.
“With the return to the Suez route, shipping lines have already had time to plan for the change, so any transition disruptions should theoretically be more limited and manageable,” Lloyd's Mr. Miller's list said.
More ships passing through the Suez Canal would provide welcome relief for companies that have argued over five years of delays and rising shipping rates. In addition to the Houthi attacks, shipping was disrupted by the pandemic trade boom, reduced crossings in the Panama Canal and labor unrest at ports on the eastern and Gulf coasts of the United States.
Another challenge may come. Mr. Mercogliano said President Trump's tariffs could prompt American companies to order more foreign parts and goods ahead of new jobs, jam ports with containers and keep shipping rates high. “There's so much flux right now,” he said.
