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It is far from destroyed

    Israel's longest war so far has failed to destroy its main enemy, Hamas. Hamas, which, despite devastating losses, sees the ceasefire in Gaza as a victory for itself – and a failure for Israel.

    Shortly after a ceasefire took effect on Sunday, masked gunmen in vehicles swooped through Gaza's devastated streets to mark the celebration. Members of an elite unit wore their full uniforms during the hostage taking in Al Saraya Square in Gaza City. It was Hamas' reminder that its armed wing was still here, fifteen months after Israel planned to destroy them.

    One of Hamas's main objectives in taking approximately 250 hostages during the brutal October 7, 2023 attack on Israel was to secure the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli prisons. When Israel stormed Gaza in response, Hamas promised not to return the hostages until Israel withdrew its troops from the enclave, finally ended the war and allowed reconstruction.

    After more than a year of fighting, Hamas and Israel have reached a phased agreement in recent days that provides for the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, as well as a 42-day ceasefire and the introduction of aid. The agreement also opens the door to further negotiations that could lead to a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire.

    “(The agreement) meets all these conditions… the resistance has achieved what the Palestinian people want,” Osama Hamdan, a senior political member of Hamas, told Al Jazeera after an agreement was reached.

    Khalil Al Hayya, Hamas's chief negotiator, said in a speech on Wednesday that Israel had failed to achieve its war goals and praised Hamas' armed wing, the Al Qassam Brigades, whose spokesman Abu Obaida praised the war in Gaza as an “inspiration” for generations to come. Israel's main goal in the conflict was to eliminate Hamas.

    Some Israeli ministers, lawmakers and even a small minority of hostage families view the acceptance of a deal as an Israeli defeat. Far-right minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his party resigned from the government and the Knesset (parliament), calling the ceasefire a “surrender.” Fellow right-wing Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called it “catastrophic” and a group of army reservists called it “The Surrender Deal.”

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, convenes his security cabinet to vote on the ceasefire on January 17, 2025. - Koby Gideon/GPO/AP

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, convenes his security cabinet to vote on the ceasefire on January 17, 2025. – Koby Gideon/GPO/AP

    “When you see the dancing in Gaza, the celebrations in villages in Judea and Samaria, you understand which side surrendered in this deal,” Ben Gvir said in a statement on Thursday. Judea and Samaria is what Israel calls the West Bank.

    But most in Israel welcome the deal, including the majority of hostage families, Israeli President Isaac Herzog and the political opposition. Netanyahu's office said after the security cabinet approved the deal that the prime minister still “supports the realization of the war's objectives.”

    A neon sign referring to the Israeli hostages held in Gaza on December 9, 2023, atop the Charles Bronfman Auditorium in Tel Aviv's HaBima Square. - Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images

    A neon sign referring to the Israeli hostages held in Gaza on December 9, 2023, atop the Charles Bronfman Auditorium in Tel Aviv's HaBima Square. – Ahmad Gharabli/AFP/Getty Images

    A source familiar with the matter told CNN that Netanyahu told ministers that the US has given guarantees “that if Hamas sabotages some phase of the deal, Israel can resume fighting.”

    'Hamas' continued existence is a defeat for Israel'

    The Israeli response to Hamas to the October 7 attack was intense. It crippled Gaza under the heaviest bombing campaign in the enclave's history, killing tens of thousands of Palestinians and forcing hundreds of thousands of others to flee, many of whom were forced to live in tents with little food and inadequate medical care.

    Israel also inflicted heavy casualties on Hamas, killing its top leadership, including the mastermind of the October 7 attack, Yahya Sinwar, and claiming to have killed thousands of the group's fighters. The country was ruthless in rooting out resurgent militants in previously evacuated neighborhoods, while simultaneously fighting and ultimately defeating the Lebanese Hezbollah in the north, which had opened a new front against Israel in support of Gaza.

    Hamas, once under military and political control of Gaza, has been reduced to a fraction of its former self following Israel's 15-month campaign, and with the significant weakening of its regional allies Hezbollah and Iran, the group has become regionally isolated.

    Displaced Palestinians return to the war-ravaged Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip on January 19, 2025, shortly before the ceasefire was implemented. – Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP/Getty Images

    Displaced Palestinians return to the war-ravaged Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip on January 19, 2025, shortly before the ceasefire was implemented. – Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP/Getty Images

    Yet the movement has continued to present itself to Palestinians as the most formidable armed resistance group against Israel, replenishing its ranks by recruiting almost as many new militants as it has lost.

    “Every time Israel completes its military operations and withdraws, Hamas militants regroup and emerge because there is nothing else to fill the void,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said recently in a speech at the Atlantic Council.

    “We believe that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That is a recipe for continued rebellion and eternal war.”

    Tahani Mustafa, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said the suffering inflicted on Palestinians in Gaza by Israel's war creates fertile ground for recruitment.

    “You can see a wave of recruitment precisely because when there is occupation and violence, you can find relevance there,” she told CNN. “How can you expect entire segments of Gaza's population, who have lost everything, to simply brush it aside? It's a war for survival. Groups like Hamas provide (the Palestinians) with the means to do that.”

    In his comments to the Atlantic Council, Blinken said the US has emphasized to the Israeli government “that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, that without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan and a credible political rise for the Palestinians, Hamas or something equally abhorrent and dangerous will grow back.”

    Hamas promises to rebuild

    The governance of post-war Gaza remains untouched, possibly due to skepticism about whether the ceasefire will progress beyond its initial phase. Israel's ultimate war goal is the complete destruction of Hamas. But Hamas appears unconcerned, suggesting its cadres will play a role in rebuilding the devastated enclave. “The entire population, and the resistance as part of it, will start rebuilding what the occupation has destroyed,” Hamdan of Hamas told Al Jazeera.

    Hamdan insisted that regardless of the outcome, the day after for Gaza will remain similar to the day before.

    “The day after is like today, is like the day before… it will be a Palestinian day,” Hamdan said.

    Members of the International Committee of the Red Cross speak with fighters from the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, in Saraya Square in western Gaza City on January 19, 2025. - Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images

    Members of the International Committee of the Red Cross speak with fighters from the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, in Saraya Square in western Gaza City on January 19, 2025. – Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP via Getty Images

    While Hamas may claim victory, it has failed to force Israel to lift its crippling siege on Gaza and has led Israeli attacks that have killed tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians and made Gaza unliveable. The October 7 attack and the resulting war have had a ripple effect, significantly changing the regional balance of power and fundamentally reshaping the region.

    Hamas does not see its survival as a goal in this war, but for Israel the group's survival could be considered a “defeat,” the ICG's Mustafa said.

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