Comcast is cutting most cable channels. Will the new spin-off be hunter or prey?
The media giant last week put an optimistic spin on its effort to shed what Wall Street sees as an albatross — the bulk of NBCUniversal's cable networks, whose revenue growth has been hampered by the cord-cutting revolution.
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Now Comcast executives see an opportunity to push back. They may not be able to reverse the migration of former cable subscribers to streaming, but maybe – just maybe – they can gain a larger audience overall with a spinoff they can add to over time. The plan, said Comcast President Mike Cavanagh, leaves the company “taking offense in a changing media landscape.”
This new “SpinCo,” which will take about a year to separate from the rest of NBCU, will house basic cable companies MSNBC, CNBC, USA Network, Oxygen, E!, Syfy and Golf Channel. It also includes digital properties Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes, golf course booking service GolfNow and youth sports platform SportsEngine.
Mark Lazarus, the NBCU boss who will serve as CEO of the new company, has already suggested that SpinCo could try to acquire a TV station group or sports entities, according to two people familiar with his meeting with MSNBC staff. “We see a real opportunity to invest and build additional scale, and I am excited about the growth opportunities this transition will provide,” Lazarus said in announcing the deal.
But there's another possible outcome: A private equity firm or strategic buyer could take a chance and try to do the same thing Comcast wants. After all, the cable networks will continue to generate money in the near future, thanks to the existing cable transport contracts. The long-term prospects for linear cable are quite bleak, but there are predictable cash flows that can be leveraged for at least a few more years.
“Once they're independent, we can see [private equity] companies interested in acquiring Comcast's SpinCo across the cable networks,” said Howard Gutman, private equity strategy and coverage leader at MorganFranklin Consulting. “This is an opportunity for Comcast to look at itself and say, 'Some assets may not be a priority for me, but could be a priority for a new owner.'”
That's not the future Comcast is publicly considering. During the MSNBC meeting, Lazarus described the new company as a “well-funded start-up.” It won't be saddled with the enormous debt burden of rivals like Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Global. According to Comcast, SpinCo will have a “well-capitalized balance sheet with strong credit metrics.”
Because Comcast structures SpinCo as a tax-exempt spinoff, there is typically a two-year waiting period before it engages in strategic mergers and acquisitions to avoid incurring taxes on the transaction, Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne wrote last week a research note. However, he added: “We believe there are scenarios where consolidation of the industry, including SpinCo, could occur sooner.”
Television static Revenue in NBCU's media segment has stalled due to declines at the linear networks and growth at Peacock.
The cable economy is in seemingly irrevocable decline. WBD announced a massive $9.1 billion writedown on its TV assets in August, citing business headwinds and the expected loss of its lucrative deal with the NBA to broadcast games on its cable networks. A day later, Paramount followed suit, revealing a $5.98 billion impairment charge for its cable TV division prior to its acquisition by Skydance Media.
But Comcast has managed to stay in better shape. Since 2015, it has unsentimentally shuttered eight networks (G4, Olympic Channel, NBCSN, Chiller, Universal HD, Esquire Network, Cloo and Universal Sports). “Comcast has been more aggressive than any other media company in shutting down basic cable networks over the years,” said Scott Robson, senior research analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Not surprisingly, the company is spinning off the cable networks, which are “more vulnerable to future decline than the broadcast networks due to the contraction of the pay-TV universe,” he says.
SpinCo is also a defensive move, intended to keep the NBC broadcast network and Peacock streaming hub separate from the downhill cable TV business. The “new” NBCU will consist of NBC and stations, Peacock, Bravo, NBC News Group, NBC Sports, Telemundo, the Universal theme parks and resorts, and NBCU's film and television studios. Notably, reality TV powerhouse Bravo is not a passenger on the SpinCo boat, as NBCU considers it essential to the health of Peacock, where favorites like the “Real Housewives” and “Below Deck” franchises command a significant portion of its viewership. power the streamer. .
As Cavanagh pointed out during Comcast's Oct. 31 earnings call, the cable relief effort is intended to boost the overall growth profile of the core business (and, by extension, market valuation). The cable spinoff “should be positive for Comcast shareholders,” Raymond James analyst Frank Louthan wrote in a research note last week. SpinCo's relative valuation “will be lower than where the parent is currently trading, even though it is likely to be a cash cow for several years.”
Separating from the NBCU mothership will bring new challenges. SpinCo strives for better scale through possible rollups. However, as Louthan notes, the cable group will face “dis-synergies” in the near term. As a standalone company, it will have more limited pricing power when asking for increases in transportation costs. There are also questions about, for example, how MSNBC will separate from NBC News and what will happen to NBCU's integrated ad sales team.
Whether SpinCo buys other distressed media assets or chooses to sell the cable networks (as a whole or individually), Comcast's creation of a separate cable network company signals more transformative mergers and acquisitions for the troubled pay-TV sector.
After the Paramount deal with Skydance, “Comcast knows there are people and groups that are attracted to this type of entertainment,” Gutman says. “For the broader media space, it tells you that these companies are going to start preparing for consolidation in the coming years.”
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