By Parisa Hafezi and Angus McDowall
Dubai/London (Reuters) -Ran's 86 -year -old supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cuts an increasingly lonely figure.
Khamenei has seen his most important military and security advisers killed by Israeli air strikes, left large gaps in his inner circle and increases the risk of strategic errors, according to five people familiar with his decision -making process.
One of those sources, who regularly attend meetings with Khamei, described the risk of miscalculation of Iran about defense and internal stability as “extremely dangerous”.
Several senior military commanders have been killed since Friday, including the most important advisers of Khamenei of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran's Elite Military Force: the general commander Hossein Salami of the guards, the SpaceSvaart Chief Amir Ali Hajizadeh Leiden Ballistic Kazet program.
These men were part of the inner circle of the Supreme Leader of around 15-20 advisors consisting of guards commanders, clergymen and politicians, according to the sources who attended three people attending or meetings with the leader about large issues and two close to officials who are regularly present.
The loose group meets an ad hoc base when the Khamenei office contacts relevant advisers to gather at his compound in Tehran to discuss an important decision, all people said. Members are characterized by unwavering loyalty to him and the ideology of the Islamic Republic, they added.
Khamenei, who was imprisoned before the 1979 revolution and mutilated by a bomb attack before he became a leader in 1989, is deeply dedicated to maintaining the Iranian Islamic government system and very suspicious in the West.
Under Iran's government system, he has the highest order about the armed forces, the power to explain war, and can name or reject senior figures, including military commanders and judges.
Khamenei makes the final decision on important matters, although he appreciates advice, listens carefully to different points of view and often searches for additional information from his counselors, according to a source that attends meetings.
“Two things you can say about Khamenei: he is extremely stubborn but also extremely careful. He is very careful. That is why he has been in power as long as he has,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program in the Middle East Institute Think tank in Washington.
“Khamenei is quite well placed to perform the basic costs-benefit analysis, which really comes to one problem fundamentally than something else: survival of the regime.”
Khamenei's son in the foreground
The focus on survival has been repeatedly put to the test. Khamenei has deployed the revolutionary guards and his affiliated base -militia to suppress national protests in 1999, 2009 and 2022.
Although the security forces have always been able to survive protesters and restore the rule of state, years of Western sanctions have caused widespread economic misery that according to analysts could ultimately threaten internal unrest.
The deployment could hardly be higher for Khamenei who is confronted with an escalating war with Israel, which is aimed at nuclear and military locations and staff with air strikes, in which retraining Iranian rocket fire was drawn, said insiders and analysts.
The five people who are familiar with the decision -making process of Khamenei emphasized that other insiders who are not due to the strikes of Israel are the target, remain important and influential, including top advisers about political, economic and diplomatic issues.
Khamenei appoints such advisers to tackle problems that occur, which means that his reach is directly extended to a wide range of institutions that include military, cultural, political and economic domains, said two of the sources.
In this way, also working nominal among the chosen president, also in bodies, means that the Khamenei office is often not only involved in the biggest state questions, but also in carrying out even small initiatives, according to the sources.
His son Mojtaba has become more and more central in this process in the last 20 years, according to the sources, building a role that cuts between personalities, factions and organizations involved in coordinating specific issues, according to the sources.
A medium cler who is seen by some insiders as a potential successor to his aging father, Mojtaba has built close ties with the guards who have added leverage within the political and security apparatus of Iran, according to the sources.
Ali Asghar Hejazi, the substitute for political security matters at the Khamenei office, has been involved in sensitive security decisions and is often described as the most powerful intelligence officer in Iran, according to the sources.
Meanwhile, the head of the Khamenei office, Mohammad Golpayegani, as well as former Iranian Ministers of Foreign Affairs Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazi, and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani, remain familiar fasteners on diplomatic and domestic policy issues such as the core, the core, the core, the core, the core, the core, the core, the core, the core, the core.
The loss of the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards nevertheless decimates the highest ranks of a military organization that he has put in the center of power since he became the highest leader in 1989, and trusts it for both internal safety and the regional strategy of Iran.
While the regular army chain runs under the chosen president by the Ministry of Defense, the guards personally answer Khamenei, where the best military equipment for their country, air and sea branches is secured and their commanders give an important state role.
While he is confronted with one of the most dangerous moments in the history of the Islamic Republic, Khamenei is further isolated by the recent losses that other important advisers in the region in the region have been hammered by Israel.
Hezbollah chef Hassan Nasrallah, who was personally close to the Iranian leader, was killed in September by an Israeli air raid and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was overthrown by rebels in December.
(By Parisa Hafezi and Angus McDowall; Edit by Pravin Char)
