The Iranian government is extremely nervous and is engaged in urgent diplomatic efforts with Middle Eastern countries to gauge whether they can reduce the scale of Israel's response to the missile attack earlier this month and – if that fails – help protect Tehran , sources familiar with the matter told CNN.
Iran's concerns stem from uncertainty over whether the US can convince Israel not to attack Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities, and from the fact that its main proxy militia in the region, Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened by Israeli military operations in the past few weeks. sources said.
The US has consulted Israel on how it plans to respond to the October 1 Iranian attack, and US officials have made clear they do not want Israel to target Iranian nuclear sites or oil fields. US President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, their first conversation in almost two months, telling him that Israel's retaliation must be “proportionate.”
US Gulf allies, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, have also expressed concerns to the US about a possible attack on Iranian oil facilities, which could have negative economic and environmental consequences for the entire region, an Arab said diplomat. CNN.
The Biden administration is deeply concerned that the ongoing tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel, which began earlier this year after Israel struck what Iran claims is its consulate building in Damascus, could spiral into a major regional war that could threaten the U.S. pulls towards him. , at.
A major part of the fear is that US influence in Israel appears to be steadily declining over the past year. As with its operations in Gaza, Israel is increasingly ignoring US calls for greater restraint in Lebanon, where Israel's intensive bombing campaign and ground offensive have killed more than 1,400 people since late last month.
Israel also did not consult with the US before carrying out a massive attack that detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives last month, or before the assassination of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and a delicate proposal for a ceasefire called into question the fire proposed by the US and France less than 48 hours earlier.
Israel's security cabinet has not yet made a decision on how to proceed, an Israeli official told CNN on Friday. And while the gap between U.S. and Israeli positions is narrowing, it may not last, a U.S. official said.
“We actually have no way of knowing whether they voted or not,” a senior government official said of the Israeli Cabinet discussions, expressing skepticism about the level of transparency over what Israel shares with the US. The official suggested that they cannot place “too much stock in the machinations” of the Israeli government.
Last week, Israel had not given any guarantees that it would not attack Iran's nuclear facilities, CNN reported.
Israel has been planning attacks on Iran's nuclear capabilities for decades, and only two years ago simulated an attack on Iran during a military exercise. Israel is also suspected of assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and Iran's nuclear facilities have been under siege by cyberattacks, likely from Israel. The most famous is the Stuxnet virus, which managed to penetrate the Iranian nuclear power plant in Natanz.
'Our attack will be powerful'
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a strong warning to Iran on Wednesday about his country's response.
“Our attack will be powerful, precise and, above all, surprising. They won't understand what happened and how it happened,” Gallant said.
Gulf states are generally keen to stay on the sidelines of the conflict, the Arab diplomat said. While Iran has publicly warned that any parties aiding Israel will be treated as aggressors, it is also unlikely that Iran's neighbors would explicitly rally to Tehran's defense in the event of an Israeli attack.
But Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have told both the US and Iran that they will not allow Israel to use their airspace to attack Iran, the Arab diplomat and another source familiar with the matter said. case to CNN. Jordan will also protect its airspace against any unauthorized intrusion regardless of origin, a Jordanian official said.
The US does not believe Iran wants to get caught up in a full-scale war with Israel, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu is “the only one who wants a war and wants to set the region on fire to remain in power.”
But the US has still urged Tehran, through back channels, to calibrate its response if Israel attacks, an official said.
While Qatar regularly speaks to the Iranians and relays to the US what they say, the US official said that “at the end of the day we just don't know what [Iran] will do.” Key voices inside Iran will have different ideas about whether and how to respond to Israel, but that will depend on the size and scope of the long-awaited Israeli action, another US official said.
This official said that messaging from Iran has been consistent both publicly and privately since Tehran launched its barrage of missiles into Israel earlier this month and that there has been no significant change in reporting.
Iran is particularly interested in getting help from Saudi Arabia in preventing an Israeli attack and using its influence with Washington to help find a solution to the crisis, the Arab diplomat told CNN.
Officials from each country have met three times in less than a month, and Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to “discuss regional developments” and “try to stop the Zionist regime's crimes in Lebanon and Gaza,” he said. he to the local population. media.
The world is watching Israel's every move as it considers how to respond. But at least until sunset on Saturday, Israel will stand still to mark Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day of the year in Judaism. And while it is not impossible that Israel will take action, shops, restaurants and other services will be closed, public transport will not be operational and even the country's main airport – Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion – will be closed.
CNN's Kayla Tausche, Dania Karni and Katie Bo Lillis reporting contributed.
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