Following the attempted assassination of former President Trump on July 13, Yahoo Finance Executive Editor Brian Sozzi had to assemble the team to look at the impact a second presidential term would have on markets. Opening Bid is joined by Stifel chief Washington policy strategist Brian Gardner, CJ Lawrence partner & portfolio strategist Terry Gardner and Yahoo Finance Washington correspondent Ben Werschkul to break down this unique time for markets in U.S. politics.
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Video transcript
You know, the odds of President Trump winning in November probably went up quite a bit this weekend and that's seen as positive for business and markets.
And uh, we think there's a little bit of a rally in the stock markets today.
Brian, is that the right conclusion for investors to draw from this? Some investors have even told me that they are already factoring in a second Trump presidency.
But is that the right decision, given everything we've heard over the past 48 hours?
Yes, I think it is a trading risk.
I mean, oftentimes you expect there to be a risk in trade when there's chaos and conflict.
But Terry's comments aside, markets are still pricing in the likelihood of a Trump victory. Isn't that a risk for trading?
So it's positive for stocks, Brian.
Is the?
Yes go ahead.
Oh, I had one more quick question for you guys about the short-term risk, about the convention that's happening this week.
We see increasing evidence that Trump wants to be a unifying force.
He gave an interview where he said he was going to rewrite his speech. Biden gave his speech to the nation last night.
I'm curious what you guys think: A, do you believe that, or B, do you believe that this is important for the market?
I'm not sure if it matters politically.
I think it has potential and maybe that's why it flows.
You know, I think you shouldn't count on the first 24 to 48 hours and see how politicians respond in the longer term.
Terry talks about looking through the valleys. I think the same goes for politics.
Let's see if the message of unity holds.
But I think Trump has more to gain from this message of unity, if he can pull it off.
And I will say that his campaign this time has been much more disciplined than in 2016 and 2020, and that bolsters investor confidence in a Trump victory.
Yeah, I think Brian hits the nail on the head. Calm and confidence inspiring.
So if we can tone down the rhetoric and take a more stable approach to politics, I think that would be positive for stocks and bonds.
