Moscow (Reuters) -S -President Donald Trump's requirement on India to stop importing Russian oil, could threaten billions in Russian income, to encourage Moscow to stop revenge by stopping a large oil pipeline guided by the US and possibly leading to a new worldwide supply crisis.
India, the world's third largest oil importer, has become the largest buyer of Russian oil since 2022 and buys oil book positions up to 2 million barrels per day for 2% of global delivery. Other top buyers are China and Turkey.
The Indian route is so important for the Kremlin that, if it is disturbed, it could ask to take revenge by closing the CPC pipeline from Kazakhstan, where the American Oliemajors Chevron and Exxon have great bets, analysts said this week.
“Russia is not without leverage,” said the American bank.
Trump has threatened to hit rates up to 100% on countries that buy Russian oil, unless Moscow reaches a peace agreement with Ukraine against 7-9 August. A rate of 25% for all imports of American goods from India starts on Friday.
Reuters reported on Thursday that refineries of the Indian state had paused purchases of Russian oil this week in the midst of Trump's threats.
Disintegration
India only started large amounts of oil from Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, since 2022. It became a top importer after Europe, the former top client of Russia, imposed a ban on Russian oil on his military actions in Ukraine. The Russian oil giant Rosneft has a great importance in one of the largest oil refineries in India.
India is now 35% dependent on the import of Russian oil worth $ 50.2 billion in the financial year 2024-25, according to data from India.
“The cutting of this current would require a huge re -undertaking of trade flows,” said Aldo Spanjer of BNP Paribas, adding that the global stock had already been stretched.
India buys all varieties and figures from Russian oil – including urals from Western ports, Espo and Sokol from the Pacific and a few figures from the North Pole area, according to LSEG data.
Urals would be hit hardest if India stops buying, because it buys up to 70% of the largest export figure in Russia per volume. The Indian oil minister of oil said the country can find an alternative offer.
India should increase the import of crude oil of the US and the Middle East or lower refining roads, which leads to a peak in diesel prices, especially in Europe, that imports fuel from India.
“Indian refineries will still have trouble replacing the heavy quality of the Russian crude oil so that they can end,” said Neil Crosby of Sparta raw materials.
Falling income
Russia has succeeded in continuing to sell oil since 2022 despite international sanctions, although it sells it at discounts at the worldwide prices.
