The US economy has lasted, but the developing growth mix is impossible to ignore.
After the post-Pandemic break, labor productivity broke back, rose by 1.6% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, so that the output was even pushed when the operation was cooled.
Under the surface, the total factor productivity last year increased by 1.3% in private non -farm companies, which underlined the impact of technology and procedure grades.
A significant part of that increase is linked to AI acceptance at an early stage, whereby companies are doubled with automation and digital workflows. On the other hand, economists warn that the profits are uneven and are not broadly based.
That said, the figures in the short term indicate considerable volatility. The GDP ended a contract with an annual rate of -0.5% in Q1 2025 and then waved back to +3.3% in Q2, with the import of a resistance to a boost.
While we look ahead, the OECD hangs the growth of the US at 1.8% in 2025, comfortably below 2.8% logged in in 2024, on the back of rates and labor winds, despite the fact that AI connected Capex offers some offset.
With that background, Goldman Sachs analysts just let a striking Wall Street-note fall over the long-term role of AI when reforming the baseline growth for the rest of the decade.
The call comes with real long -term implications for policy, profit and positioning.
Goldman Sachs has achieved AI, just like Macro force.
Goldman analysts now expect the American potential GDP growth for the rest of the decade to rise at least 2.1% to the back of stronger AI-led productivity gain.
“Artificial intelligence will increase productivity growth to 1.7% to the end of 2029 and then 1.9% in the early 2030s,” they wrote. This shift supports GDP growth in the range of 2.1% to 2.3%, above the pre-Pandemic basin.
Recent history supports it.
Goldman analyst Manuel Abecasis said:
Since 2019, the labor productivity of the economy has increased by approximately 1.6% per year, well above the pre-building average of 1.2%. At the same time, increased immigration in 2022-2024, annual labor power growth increased to around 0.8% on average since 2019 (versus 0.6% before the pandemic).
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Earlier this year, Goldman predicted that AI could bump the worldwide GDP with 7%, about $ 7 trillion in the following decade, with a striking $ 160 billion already added to “True GDP” via AI and investment.
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Productivity growth was 1.7% until 2029, followed by 1.9% in the early 2030s.
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Potential growth of the American GDP is linked to 2.1% to 2.3%, which floats above pre-building standards.
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Immigration and higher workforce growth also strengthen the baseline.
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Goldman sees AI add $ 7 trillion worldwide, with $ 160 billion already in the game.
