The US and its allies have sounded the alarm after Volodymyr Zelensky claimed North Korea was sending thousands of soldiers to help Russia in its war in Ukraine.
Ukraine's president claimed Thursday that his government had intelligence that nearly 10,000 soldiers from North Korea were willing to join Russian forces fighting in his country.
Zelensky made the claim, without providing further details, a day after US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said Washington and its allies were concerned about North Korea's military support for Russia.
“We have received information from our intelligence services that North Korea has sent tactical personnel and officers to Ukraine,” Zelensky told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
“They are preparing 10,000 soldiers in their country, but they have not yet moved them to Ukraine or Russia.”
Zelensky warned that any third country wading into the conflict, in this case North Korea, would be “the first step towards a world war.”
Both Russia and Ukraine have received arms imports from allies since Vladimir Putin invaded in February 2022, with Ukraine's own war effort increasingly dependent on money and weapons from Western partners. But neither is yet supported by major deployments of troops from a third country.
The BBC quoted a Russian military source as saying that a “number of North Koreans” had arrived in the country's Far East. Sources on the Ukrainian side claimed that the Russian army formed a unit of around 3,000 North Koreans, while the Russian source said the number was “absolutely nowhere near” that figure.
How extensive is North Korea's involvement in the Russian war?
North Korea is forging closer military ties with Russia even as it cuts ties with South Korea, prompting the U.S., Japan, South Korea and eight other Western governments to form a new multinational team to oversee enforcement of the sanctions against Pyongyang.
The US Treasury Department alleged in May that Moscow had used more than 40 North Korean ballistic missiles in its attacks on Ukraine, as well as other munitions, in violation of UN Security Council resolutions.
Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly signed a mutual aid agreement in June to facilitate the transfer of munitions and missiles for Moscow's war effort.
The US State Department said there were signs that North Korea would increase its supply of weapons such as artillery shells and missiles to Russia, “causing further instability in Europe”.
Are North Koreans already fighting for Russia?
Ukrainian media reported this month that six North Korean soldiers had been killed in a rocket attack in eastern Donetsk on October 3. The reports have not been confirmed.
“The issue of deploying regular troops is most likely due to mutual agreements resembling a military alliance” between Pyongyang and Moscow, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-Hyun said earlier this month.
The Kremlin rejected the claim, calling it “another fake news story.”
A North Korean troop deployment, if confirmed, would bolster the rapidly dwindling ranks of the Russian military. Neither side makes public the number of victims, but the New York Times reported that Russia had seen at least 115,000 soldiers killed and 500,000 injured since the war began more than two years ago.
The Wall Street Journalreported last month, citing unnamed sources, that about a million Ukrainians and Russians had been killed or injured since the start of the war.
There have been reports in the past that North Korea sent civilian workers to help rebuild in occupied Ukrainian regions captured by Russia after the war started in February 2022.
What benefits does sending troops to Ukraine have for Pyongyang?
North Korea's strategic partnership with Moscow has deepened significantly since Kim traveled to Russia on a rare foreign visit last year.
Putin then visited the North this year and the two leaders signed a defense pact calling for mutual assistance “using all available means” in the event of aggression against either country.
The North would receive Russian funds for sending troops to the Ukrainian front line, money Pyongyang needs to build up its nuclear force, said Andrei Lankov, director of a security analysis firm Korea Risk Group.
“Pyongyang would be well paid and perhaps gain access to Russian military technology, which Moscow would otherwise be reluctant to transfer to North Korea,” Lankov told the BBC.
“It would also give their soldiers real combat experience, but there is also the risk of exposing North Koreans to life in the West, which is a significantly more prosperous area.”
US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said any North Korean involvement in the war would significantly expand defense ties with Russia.
“It also signals a new level of desperation for Russia as it continues to suffer significant battlefield losses in the brutal war against Ukraine,” he said. The Guardian.
In a show of support, Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution in March that effectively abolished U.N. expert oversight of Security Council sanctions on North Korea. It led to Western accusations that Moscow was acting to shield its arms purchases from Pyongyang in order to fuel the war in Ukraine.
North Korea has shipped about 7,000 containers filled with ammunition to Russia since last year in exchange for 9,000 Russian containers likely filled with aid, South Korea claims.
How will the US and its allies respond?
U.S. officials said this week they could not confirm Ukrainian claims about the deployment of North Korean soldiers but were still evaluating the reports.
“We are concerned about them and … we have agreed that we will continue to monitor the situation closely,” the Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance has “no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fighting.”
In any case, he said it was “very concerning” that North Korea was supporting Russia through “arms supplies, technology supplies and innovation, to support them in the war effort.”
The US, Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement condemning North Korea for its nuclear and missile developments, deepening military cooperation with Russia and engaging in allegedly illegal activities to finance its weapons programs. The statement also emphasized Washington's “ironclad” commitment to defend its allies.
