During a visit to a Walmart in Ozark, Missouri, in early January, Laura Modrell was surprised to see customers “gasping” in the grocery store's dairy section. As she got closer, she saw that the shelves, where stacks of egg cartons would normally sit, were almost empty.
“All the normal-sized cartons of eggs were practically gone,” Ms Modrell said. “I heard some elderly people were very upset.”
Across the country, consumers in supermarkets are confronted with empty shelves and higher prices for what has traditionally been a cheap source of protein: eggs.
And it's probably going to get worse.
Volatile egg prices are part of the grocery shopping experience, partly because of inflation, but also because of the bird flu that made its way to the United States in 2022. That flu, caused by the H5N1 virus, has infected or killed 136 million birds so far.
But the outbreak has recently intensified. More than 30 million chickens – about 10 percent of the country's egg-laying population – have been killed in the past three months to prevent the spread of the disease. It could take months for the supply of egg-laying chickens to return to normal levels of about 318 million, roughly the equivalent of one chicken per person.
“This is the most devastating wave of bird flu outbreaks we have seen since it emerged three years ago,” said Karyn Rispoli, editor-in-chief of eggs at Expana, a company that aggregates and tracks the price of eggs. “And this time, retail-focused farms have been disproportionately affected, leaving a big, gaping hole.”
The sharp decline in the number of egg-laying chickens has caused a sharp spike in wholesale egg prices. Grocery stores and restaurants now pay about $7 for a dozen eggs — a record level, compared to $2.25 last fall, according to Expana.
Although customers have noticed higher egg prices – the cost of eggs to consumers is 37 percent higher than a year ago – they have not yet felt the full impact of the shortage. Grocery stores typically price products such as milk and eggs as “loss leaders,” meaning they are sold for less than the wholesale price that stores pay, to attract customers to a store.
Karen Meleta, a spokeswoman for Wakefern, a retailer-owned supermarket cooperative whose stores include ShopRite and Gourmet Garage, said in an emailed statement that the grocer has tried to maintain egg prices, but that it is “difficult to strike a balance, especially because of market volatility and uncertainty resulting from these ongoing outbreaks.”
Across the country, consumers are finding empty shelves or limits on the number of boxes they can purchase. This can cause panic and lead consumers to stockpile eggs for fear that they may not be able to find them later.
Before Thanksgiving, Sarah Joy Hays, the owner of Counterspace, a bakery in Baton Rouge, La., paid less than $2 for a dozen eggs, which she needs for chocolate chip cookies, quiche and other items, she said. But then prices started to rise sharply. After her distributor quoted a price of $7.86 for a dozen eggs, she got in her car and drove to a nearby Sam's Club, where she bought eggs for $3.86 per dozen.
“I am limited at Sam's Club in the number of cases of eggs I can purchase, so I have to make multiple trips,” Ms. Hayes said. “But it feels like a bargain right now, so I'll do it.”
During the presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump blamed the Biden administration for inflation and promised to lower prices for consumers. The spread of bird flu will make that promise more difficult. This week, United Egg Producers, the lobbying organization for egg producers, urged Congress and the new Trump administration to take swift action to formulate a national strategy to combat bird flu, including more funding for faster state-based testing – and federal level and the development of potential vaccines.
During her confirmation hearing on Thursday, Brooke Rollins, who is president Trump's nominee for agriculture secretary told senators that one of her top priorities was to “immediately and comprehensively take control of animal disease outbreaks,” though she did not provide details.
For egg producing companies, help finding a solution to the virus cannot come soon enough.
Tracy and Jason Ramsdell, who own chicken farms in rural South Dakota and California, have had outbreaks of bird flu, most recently in December, resulting in the loss of 40,000 pasture-raised, free-range chickens in California. While the federal government will pay compensation for birds to be destroyed, Ms. Ramsdell said the farm will still suffer “tens of thousands” of dollars in losses, and it will take at least six months to repopulate the chickens and get going again come. company.
“Everyone in the pet industry should be nervous right now,” Ms Ramsdell said. “Until we collectively come together and get solid, concrete answers about what's happening, I don't think it's going to stop.”
Federal health officials have been closely monitoring the latest strain of bird flu, which is fatal to chickens and has also been found in cattle, which typically recover from the flu with treatment.
Currently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the risk to humans remains low and pasteurized milk products remain safe to consume. Eggs are also safe to eat as long as they are cooked to the right temperature to kill bacteria and viruses, but the cost is are likely to rise higher and gaps on store shelves are likely to widen, analysts warn.
“It could take six months for the market to stabilize,” said Brian Moscogiuri, vice president at Eggs Unlimited, a New Jersey wholesaler. “We need to see bird flu outbreaks stop. We need a period where the farms are not affected and their chickens can be repopulated and we need to see demand start to slow.”
In addition to infecting laying hens, the virus has also affected farms that raise chicks sold to egg-laying companies. Farms that have culled chickens infected with the virus will have to wait longer before they can repopulate their operations.
“If you place an order for chicks today, you may not receive them until April or October 2026,” Ms Rispoli said.
All types of poultry are susceptible to the H5N1 virus. Cases have been reported in Turkey, and food industry analysts are now closely monitoring the first reports of an outbreak in broiler chickens bred for meat production in Georgia, the country's largest poultry-producing state.
The outbreak at two nearby farms in northern Georgia was confirmed in mid-January, leading to the removal of about 175,000 chickens, said Matthew Agvent, communications director at the Georgia Department of Agriculture.
But to contain the spread, the state has ordered a 10-kilometer quarantine zone around the two farms, limiting the ability of another 120 poultry farms within that zone to supply chickens to processors without special approval, Mr. Agvent said.
Egg producers are stepping up their calls for lawmakers to take swift action in developing and administering vaccines to the country's chicken and bird populations.
But even a vaccine may not eradicate the disease ongoing outbreak, said Chad Hart, an economics professor at Iowa State University. In addition to the uncertain cost of vaccinating more than 300 million birds, bird flu is constantly changing, meaning a vaccine could miss a new strain that develops. In early January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that none of the vaccines available on the market matched the current virulent strain found in the most recent outbreak.
And vaccinating all birds in the United States could hurt poultry exports, Mr. Hart said. The United States exports approximately $5.5 billion worth of poultry meat each year.
“Different countries have different standards when it comes to vaccinations,” Mr Hart said. “Vaccines have been used over the years as a reason to block imports and exports from various countries.”
