A backup
That said, the team behind the analysis claims that depending on other factors, the rules can play an important role. Trump has suggested he will target all of Biden's energy policies, and that includes the IRA itself. Its repeal could significantly slow the growth of renewable energy in the US, as could lingering problems with expanding the electric grid to include new renewable capacity.
Moreover, the US sees electricity demand increasing faster in 2023 than in the previous decade. While it is still unclear whether this is the result of new demand or simply weather conditions driving the use of electricity for heating and cooling, there are several factors that could easily boost electricity consumption in the coming years: the electrification of transport, rising use of data centers and the electrification of appliances and home heating.
Should these increase demand sufficiently, continued use of coal could be made economical in the absence of EPA regulations. “The rules … could be seen as a backstop against higher emissions outcomes in the context of futures with improved coal-fired power economics,” the article suggests, “which could happen with higher demand, slower deployment of renewables through interconnection and allowing of delays, or higher natural gas prices. .”
And it might be the only backstop we have. The report also notes that a number of states have already set aggressive emissions reduction goals, including some for net-zero emissions by 2050. But these should not serve as a substitute for federal climate policy, as the states taking these steps are very low on coal in the first place.
Science, 2025. DOI: 10.1126/science.adt5665 (About DOIs).
