But experts believe the near term will be more complicated and could spark a fossil fuel revival. In the first week of March, power plants in Europe burned 51 percent more coal than a year earlier, data from research institute Fraunhofer ISE shows. The world’s largest private coal producer, Peabody Energy, posted record results in February, reaching a net profit of $513 million in the last three months of 2021, from a loss of $129 million a year earlier. Last year, coal flow in Europe registered its first increase in nearly a decade, an 18 percent increase.
But analysts like Zachmann argue that any new reliance on coal is simply a short-lived way to leverage existing infrastructure until renewables can catch up. “The benefit of [burning more coal] is that we have existing coal plants that can do that, that don’t require new investment, and so we don’t lock in new dependencies,” he adds.
Others believe that a short-term spike in emissions would be offset by the boost renewables will receive if Europe cuts ties to Russian gas. “We have to get through a difficult winter and beyond by looking at resilience, and that could lead us to burn more fossil fuels if they are available,” said Michael Bradshaw, a professor of global energy at Warwick University in Britain. “But at the same time, we are laying the groundwork… so that we can actually make more progress [toward the green transition] at a faster rate.”
Václav Bartuška, general ambassador for energy security in the Czech Republic, agrees with that idea. “There is a temporary role for coal, which we had hoped would have disappeared from the energy mix by the end of this decade. But it will last longer,” he told news website Seznam Zprávy last week. “We will need it until we find alternative sources. Until then, not even the greenest government will phase out coal.”
How long coal use could continue is unclear. †[The European Commission is] talk about 1,000 gigawatts of renewable capacity on the system by 2030, that’s about three times what’s installed today,” said Richard Howard, research director at consultancy Aurora Energy, describing this number as “hard to believe”. it is encouraging that there is such momentum to really accelerate the green transition through this,” he says.
The idea of even a short-term peak in coal consumption does not sit well with everyone. “We can’t afford it, even as a temporary solution,” said Chiara Martinelli, director of Climate Action Network Europe, adding that fossil fuel dependence must end. “I think we need to look more at short-term measures, namely reducing energy demand.”
Greenpeace Germany has also called for cutting energy consumption for the duration of the war, proposing a Sunday driving ban; encourage people to lower their heating by 1 or 2 degrees; and call for new speed limits of 100 km/h on highways, 80 km/h on country roads and 30 km/h in cities. “The mere introduction of a 100 km/h speed limit on highways would reduce fuel consumption by 2 million tons per year,” the group said.
