Chipotle (CMG) will have to fight to impress more headwind that touches the restaurant industry.
Wall Street says that the Burrito chain argued in bad weather and heavy comparisons with the results of the second quarter, with his chicken already pastor that stimulates results. It will probably be slower, albeit strong, revenue growth for the fourth quarter and the profit of the entire year, who are expected to come close on Tuesday after the market.
“The apparent intra-quartal aircraft of revenue growth took place only a few weeks before the announcement of the guidelines for the entire year,” wrote Bernstein Restaurant analyst Danilo Gargiulo in a note to customers.
The turnover of the same store is expected to grow by 5.67% for the fourth quarter and 7.43% for the year. Turnover for the quarter is expected to be $ 2.85 billion, in addition to adapted profit per share of $ 0.25.
The average check growth is expected to increase 1.29% compared to an increase of 2.40% in the quarter before.
This will be the first guidance under the new CEO Scott Boatwright, which has been reporting to former CEO Brian Niccol since 2017 as Chief Operations Officer.
This is what Wall Street expects from the results of Chipotle's fourth quarter, according to the estimates of Bloomberg, compared to the previous year:
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Custom profit per share: $ 0.25, compared to $ 0.21
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Gain: $ 2.85 billion, compared to $ 2.52 billion
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The revenue growth of the same store: 5.67%, compared to 8.40%
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Average check Growth: 1.29%, compared to 1.0%
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Traffic growth: 4.41%, compared to 7.40%
In this report, the potential impact of rates in the background looms. The Trump administration has announced a rate of 25% to the Mexican import, which will take effect in about a month.
TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles estimated that 85% of Chipotle's avocados from Mexico are imported. Earlier, the company said that avocados came from the Dominican Republic, the US, Colombia, Peru, Colombia and Mexico.
Tomatoes are another important import. Charles projects that avocados make up around 7% percent to 11% of Chipotle's goods costs, but tomatoes only form low single figures.
In the meantime, the potential release of Chipotle Honey Chicken has enthusiastic as a limited time in March. Per Charles it could offer a tail of 50 basic points in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter.
Deutsche Bank analyst Lauren Silberman called “worries about underlying foundations … exaggerated” in a note for customers
She added that the team expects that “strength will continue in 2025, supported by a strong innovation and marketing pipeline”, including the Chipotle Honey Chicken.
