Two weeks ago, middle-class Russians were able to work and buy from the largest international companies, plan vacations in the West, get their news from lively (if contested) independent outlets, and post whatever they wanted on social media.
Situation: With a new law promising jail terms for journalists who even call Vladimir Putin’s war a “war,” foreign and domestic outlets are shutting down. Western companies are leaving. Social media platforms are disappearing. Boundaries are getting tighter. Protesters are being locked up en masse.
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“It’s over,” said Alexander Baunov, a senior fellow at Carnegie Moscow. “All vestiges of liberalism will be obliterated.”
“The rules were clear and they aren’t,” says Baunov. “We can’t tell what’s dangerous and what isn’t. You don’t know what kind of repression you might face for the things that were tolerated before.”
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Educated Russians knew they lived in an autocracy, he says. Many had made peace with that. But they never expected to live again in the kind of country where ‘portraits of the Great Leader’ hang on the walls.
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People who work in journalism, the arts or for international companies see their career prospects evaporate. Tens of thousands of Russians have fled the country.
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Educated Russians have long discussed the conditions under which they could emigrate, he says. For many, border closures, social media shutdowns and “the deglobalization of Russia” were their red lines, he says. Others simply feel that they cannot live normally in a country that is attacking its neighbour.
Yes but: That is of course part of the population. An independent poll quoted in the Washington Post puts it at 58% approval for the war, and 23% disapproving it.
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Many Russians have never shopped at IKEA, had Starbucks coffee or watched Netflix, so they won’t feel the shift as keenly.
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When financial sanctions start to gnaw, many will be willing to accept the Kremlin line that they are victims of economic warfare from the West that has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine, Baunov says.
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Sanctions have already permeated everyday life and conversations in a way they never did in 2014, but he doesn’t expect them to push any more Russians onto the streets. “The fear of repression is much greater than the discontent caused by the sanctions.”
But Russians are not completely cut off from the West, or from the truth about the war.
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Telegram, the widely used social media app, is still operational. Online, Russians are flocking to virtual private networks.
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But Putin could still be reasonably sure that when Russian troops bombed a maternity hospital in Mariupol — just 55 miles from Russia — only a fraction of the population would ever see the horrific images, or think their country was responsible.
It comes down to: The past two weeks have been a step back in time in a way. Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Disney leave. A new Iron Curtain is taking shape.
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