Even as the Kremlin began to absorb parts of Ukraine in a sharp escalation in the conflict, the Russian military suffered new defeats that exposed deep problems on the battlefield and opened fissures at the top of the Russian government.
The setbacks have seriously tarnished the image of a powerful Russian army and increased tensions over a poorly planned mobilization. They have also fueled fighting between Kremlin insiders and increasingly cornered Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Here’s a look at the latest Russian losses, some of the reasons behind them, and the possible consequences.
A NUMBER OF THE NETHERLANDS IN THE NORTHEAST, SOUTH
Relying on weapons supplied by the West, Ukraine has followed up on last month’s gains in the northeastern region of Kharkov by pushing deeper into the occupied territories and forcing Russian troops to withdraw from the city of Lyman, a key logistics node.
The Ukrainian army has also launched a wide-ranging counter-offensive in the south, capturing a series of villages on the western bank of the Dnieper River and advancing towards the city of Kherson.
The Ukrainian victories in the Kherson region followed relentless attacks on the two main crossing points across the Dnieper, rendering them useless and forcing the Russian forces on the western bank of the Dnieper to rely solely on pontoon crossings, which were also repeatedly hit by the Ukrainians. .
Phillips P. O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews, predicted more Russian failures in Kherson, noting that it’s “hard to stabilize a line when your logistics are stretched, your troops are exhausted.” and your opponent much, much smarter.”
Pressed against the broad river and suffering from severe supply shortages, Russian forces face imminent defeat that could set the stage for a potential Ukrainian attempt to regain control of the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
MILITARY DEFICIENCY AND COMMAND WOES
Military reporters and bloggers embedded with Russian forces in Ukraine have painted a bleak picture of an ill-equipped and poorly organized force under incompetent command.
As the war enters its eighth month, the Russian military faces a dire personnel shortage, lack of coordination between units and unstable supply lines.
Many Russian units also have low morale, a depressed mood that is in stark contrast to Ukraine’s well-motivated troops.
Unlike the Ukrainian military, which relies on intelligence data from the US and its NATO allies to select and attack targets, the Russian military is plagued by poor intelligence.
When Russian intelligence discovers a Ukrainian target, the military goes through a lengthy process to get permission to attack it, which often drags on until the target disappears.
Russian war correspondents mainly complained about the shortage of drones, noting that Iranian-supplied drones have not been used for maximum effectiveness due to poor target selection.
KREMLIN SUMMIT MORE TROOPS, TERRITORY ATTACHMENT
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to the Ukrainian counter-offensive by ordering a partial military mobilization, which aims to assemble at least 300,000 reservists to bolster troops along the 1,000-kilometer front line in Ukraine.
At the beginning of the invasion, Ukraine announced a sweeping mobilization with the aim of forming an army of 1 million members. Until then, Russia had tried to win the war with a shrinking contingent of volunteer soldiers. The US estimates the initial invasion force at 200,000, and some Western estimates put the number of Russian casualties at 80,000 killed, wounded and captured.
While aggressive circles in Moscow cheered the mobilization for a long time coming, hundreds of thousands of Russian men fled abroad to avoid being recruited, and protests flared up across the country, posing new challenges to the Kremlin. .
New recruits posted photos showing them being forced to sleep on the ground or even out in the open. Some reported getting their hands on rusty weapons and told them to buy medical kits and other basic supplies themselves. In a tacit admission of supply problems, Putin fired a deputy defense minister in charge of military logistics.
The mobilization is not a quick solution to Russia’s military woes. It will take months for the new recruits to be trained and form combat-ready units.
Putin then raised the bar by abruptly annexing Ukraine’s occupied regions and expressing his willingness to use “all available means” to protect them, a blunt reference to Russia’s nuclear arsenal.
OPEN CRACKS AT THE TOP
In an unprecedented sign of infighting in the upper echelons of government, the Kremlin-backed regional leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, has sharply criticized the top military, accusing them of incompetence and nepotism.
Kadyrov blamed Colonel General Alexander Lapin for failing to secure supplies and reinforcements for his troops leading to their withdrawal from Lyman. He stated that the general deserves to be stripped of his rank and sent to the front line as a soldier to “wash off his shame with his blood.”
Kadyrov also directly accused Russia’s top military officer, General Valery Gerasimov, of covering up Lapin’s blunders — a sharp attack that fueled speculation that the Chechen leader may have forged an alliance with other aggressive members of the Russian elite against the top military leadership.
In a blunt statement, Kadyrov also urged the Kremlin to consider using low-yield nuclear weapons against Ukraine to reverse the course of the war, a call that seemed to fuel the growing popularity of the idea among Kremlin hawks. reflect.
In a show of continued support for Kadyrov, Putin promoted him to colonel general on the occasion of his birthday, a move that was sure to infuriate the top executives. And while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described Kadyrov’s statement as overly emotional, he strongly praised the Chechen leader’s role in the fighting and the courage of his troops.
In another sign of growing dissension at the top, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a millionaire and businessman dubbed “Putin’s chief,” lashed out at the governor of St. Petersburg, accusing his failure to provide assistance to Prigozhin’s Wagner private security company amounts to supporting Ukraine.
Some other members of the Russian elite quickly offered support to Kadyrov and Prigozhin, who have increasingly served as frontmen for the aggressive circles in Moscow.
Retired Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev, a senior member of the lower house of the Russian parliament, strongly supported the Chechen leader, saying Russia’s defeat in Lyman was rooted in the top executives’ desire to report only good news to Putin.
“It’s a problem of total lies and positive reports from head to toe,” he said.
