USA TODAY Opinion asked US Army Col. Yevgeny (Eugene) Vindman to give his assessment of developments in Ukraine’s war with Russia. Vindman, along with his twin brother Alexander Vindman, served on the National Security Council during the Trump administration. They expressed concern about President Donald Trump’s phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2019; the brothers were later fired from the NSC.
“It’s hard for me to see what (Vladimir) Putin is doing to those people and his own country,” Vindman said. ‘I am also thinking of my mother’s grave in Kiev and of my other relatives who are buried there. Will I ever be able to visit their graves and put flowers on them? Will there be anything left? I’m not sure.’
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Vindman spoke in a personal capacity. The views expressed are his own and not necessarily the views of the US military, the Department of Defense or the US government. His conversation with USA TODAY editors Tim Swarens and Austin Bogues has been edited for length and clarity:
Q. What is your overall assessment of how things are now in the war? Is the most likely scenario still a Russian military victory, or have the facts on the ground changed in such a way that Ukrainians have a real chance of repelling the invasion?
A. The war in Ukraine is entering a new, more deadly phase. Russian troops seem to be reverting to their old method of city leveling and seemingly indiscriminate bombing (see Aleppo, Syria and Grozny, Chechnya). They destroy many civilian areas and structures and attack civilian facilities, including Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. The number of civilian casualties is likely to skyrocket. At the same time, Ukrainian troops inflict heavy casualties on Russian air and ground forces. Russia will not be able to sustain such victims for long.
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A Russian victory is not a foregone conclusion. The Russian armed forces are underperforming and the Ukrainian armed forces are underperforming. The Ukrainians’ will to fight is impressive, and they have proven to be one of the most motivated and effective forces in the world despite being under attack. This is largely due to Zelenskyy’s leadership. Ukrainians have a legitimate chance to fend off the invasion, but the cost for civilian casualties will be high.
Q. Reports indicate that Russian forces are using heavy firepower, including rockets and missiles, to attack Ukrainian cities. Have you seen evidence suggesting that Putin and Russian commanders may have engaged in war crimes? Or are we seeing the horrific but expected consequences of modern warfare when it comes to urban areas?
A. There are indications that Russian attacks violate the laws of war. The four principles of the law of war are:
►Only attack targets out of military necessity or for a military purpose.
►Distinguishing between civilian and military targets.
►Proportionality – when attacking that could result in civilian casualties, use only as much force as is necessary to achieve the military objective.
►Humanity – not to use weapons to cause unnecessary harm or to use legal weapons in an illegal manner.
The laws of war, including the Geneva Conventions on the Protection of Civilians and Civilian Objects, have specific prohibitions that Russian armed forces appear to violate, including attacks that do not distinguish between military and civilian targets. Russian troops have also used Ukrainian uniforms to be taken by surprise when attacking Ukrainian troops. That’s prohibited.
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These are all potential war crimes. They should all be documented as closely as possible for future accountability. Finally, a few years ago, Russia withdrew from some additional protocols of the Geneva Conventions. This withdrawal is less restrictive of Russian operations in some respects. It could also indicate that Russia has been planning this war for a while.
Q. Do you see a likely scenario where Putin can now withdraw and retain power? Or has he fallen into a trap where he must continue waging this war in an attempt to save his dictatorship and himself?
A. My personal opinion is that Putin’s days are numbered. Putin has pursued maximalist goals – conquer all of Ukraine and pacify the population. He will not achieve these goals. Putin is a strong man who shows that he is not very strong. Its only leverage against the West is nuclear war. However, he can’t just press the red button. He needs many subordinates to do his bidding. They are probably not interested in a nuclear war of destruction that Putin has started for no reason. He is also scared and isolated, as evidenced by the distance he places between himself and others at a table. I find it hard to believe that someone so scared would be willing to die in a nuclear holocaust. Having said all that, the risks are high, which is why the US and the West are taking a deliberate and cautious approach. Thinking creatively about exits and engaging intermediaries, such as the Israelis, is the smart and rational approach.
Q. Your family has deep roots in Ukraine. What was it like for you to watch this war unfold?
A. This war was terrible to watch. I’m glued to some screen. Twitter has some really smart people who sift through open source information, compile it, and provide excellent analytics. There is a fairly accurate picture of Russian casualties and material damage; those numbers are staggering. There is also a pretty good record of the Russian atrocities in the war, which will be required to account for once this is over. Personally, I try to think about what I can do to help. The Ukrainians are fighting for Western values, freedom and democracy. My heart goes out to them and I think the American people are behind them. In a democracy, the people speak and the politicians follow. If we support the Ukrainian people, so will our governments. I was born in the Soviet Union. I speak Russian, not Ukrainian. It’s hard for me to see what Putin is doing to those people and to his own country. I also think of my mother’s grave in Kiev and my other relatives who are buried there. Will I ever be able to visit their graves and lay flowers on them? Is there anything left? I’m not sure.
Deputy Opinion Editor Tim Swarens and Commentary Editor Austin Bogues serve on the USA TODAY editorial board.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Russia’s war with Ukraine: Putin has shown that he is not very strong
