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We’ve Got a Leaked Picture of NASA’s Future Moon Missions — and Probable Delays

    A view of SpaceX's Starship lander on the surface of the moon.
    enlarge † A view of SpaceX’s Starship lander on the surface of the moon.

    NASA

    NASA has publicly discussed the first phase of its Artemis Moon program for several years now. These first three missions, to be conducted over the next four or five years, are steps toward establishing a human presence on the moon.

    The Artemis I mission is due to launch later this year, testing NASA’s Space Launch System rocket and putting the Orion spacecraft into orbit around the moon. The second mission, Artemis II, becomes more or less a repeat, only with four people aboard the Orion. Then comes the big test, Artemis III, which will send two humans to the moon and back by the middle of this decade.

    Beyond these missions, however, NASA has been vague about the timing of future Artemis missions to the moon, though some members of Congress have pushed for more details. Now we may know why. Ars Technica has obtained internal planning documents from the space agency with an Artemis mission schedule and manifest for now through fiscal year 2034.

    At this point, NASA has its basic plan for Artemis, which is shown below. But NASA has also developed at least two “in-guide” scheduling options, which the agency’s planners believe are feasible with projected budgets, the documents show. These revised schedules indicate that NASA planners do not believe the basic plan will be feasible on time or on budget.

    One of the internal schedules, called ‘cadence’, gives priority to starting regularly. The other, labeled “content,” prioritizes launch only when the most meaningful payloads are ready. Combined, they reveal that NASA is struggling to cram an ambitious exploration plan into a finite budget. The result is a sluggish lunar program that, to a large extent, falls short of the goals of US national space policy.

    In addition to the basic schedule, NASA is considering two additional
    enlarge † In addition to the basic schedule, NASA is considering two additional “in-guide” schedules for the Artemis program. They are reproduced here from internal documents.

    Ars Technica/NASA

    Responding to questions about the internal schedules, NASA spokeswoman Kathryn Hambleton said, “NASA continues with its basic plans for Artemis missions after Artemis III. The agency routinely evaluates alternative architectures as a sensible part of programmatic planning.”

    While NASA can say it’s sticking to the “basic plan” for Artemis, this fictitious timeline is almost certainly out of reach. The agency is already considering moving the Artemis III mission beyond 2025 due to a number of factors, including a lack of moon-ready spacesuits. In addition, the preparation of revised schedules strongly suggests that NASA is ready for unavoidable delays.

    Here are some of the key issues raised by the revised schedules, which are taken above from the original NASA documents to protect our resources.

    • There are huge gaps between missions. To close a three-year gap, NASA is considering establishing an “Artemis III.5” mission that would require the agency to purchase a fourth intermediate upper stage and delay development of other key programs. .
    • The slow progress of missions is delaying the development of a “base camp” on the moon for years, with the earliest habitat placement on the lunar surface not until 2034.
    • For the next 10 years, NASA will focus on assembling a small space station in orbit around the moon, rather than building capabilities on the moon’s surface.