China's C919 aircraft faces turbulent skies amid trade tensions between the US and China

HONG KONG (AP) — China's ambition to challenge Boeing and Airbus with its own homegrown passenger jet is hitting turbulence, with deliveries of completed planes likely to fall far short of the target announced for this year.

The C919 aircraft – a single-aisle passenger jet that will rival the Boeing 737 and Airbus's A320 – is made by state-owned aircraft manufacturer COMAC. Beijing presents it as evidence of China's technological progress and progress in self-reliance, even though it uses many Western components.

Trade friction with Washington threatens to prevent COMAC from securing core components for the program backed by massive Chinese government subsidies.

“COMAC faces significant risks from the volatile policy environment, with its supply chains vulnerable to export restrictions and tit-for-tat measures between the US and China,” said Max J. Zenglein, senior Asia-Pacific economist at The Conference Board think tank.

The C919 has 48 major suppliers from the US – including GE, Honeywell and Collins – 26 from Europe and 14 from China, according to Bank of America analysts. Trump threatened to impose new export controls on “critical” software on China after Beijing imposed stricter export controls on rare earth metals.

“Existing bottlenecks are being exploited in the deal-making process between governments,” Zenglein said. “This is likely to continue as crucial dependencies have become political bargaining chips.”

Beijing has high expectations for the C919, which will make its first commercial flight in 2023. The mid-size aircraft is intended to help meet huge domestic demand for new aircraft in the coming decades. China hopes to expand sales beyond its borders and fly globally, including in Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

COMAC delivered 13 C919s to Chinese airlines last year and only seven in October this year, despite plans to ramp up production and deliver 30 aircraft by 2025, according to aviation consultancy Cirium.

China's largest state-owned airlines – Air China, China Eastern and China Southern – are the only commercial airlines currently flying a total of about 20 C919s.

Trade tensions between the US and China have “directly affected” delivery schedules for the C919, said Dan Taylor, head of consultancy at aviation consultancy IBA. First, production plans were disrupted when the U.S. suspended export licenses for the jet's LEAP-1C engines around May and resumed them in July, he said.

U.S.-controlled technology that requires export licenses for the LEAP-1C engines — jointly built by America's GE Aerospace and France's Safran — means the C919's engines require U.S. export approval, Taylor said, making it “inherently sensitive to political shifts.”

“The dependence of engines and avionics on Western suppliers continues to expose the program to policy decisions beyond COMAC's control,” Taylor explained.

Geopolitical tensions alone are not the only cause of the slower-than-expected production of the C919s. The program is “characterized by caution and prioritizing quality and safety, so there may also be some operational reasons for the slower production ramp-up,” The Conference Board's Zenglein said.

Although “the goal has always been to reduce dependence on foreign components as quickly as possible” for the C919, many analysts say it is a challenging process, Zenglein says. China's own engine alternative – the CJ-1000A being developed by state-owned Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC) – is still being tested, according to IBA.

Several airlines outside China, including AirAsia, have expressed interest in flying the C919, but a lack of international certification has so far prevented the C919 from flying outside China. Certifications from US and European Union aviation regulators can take years.

For the C919 to succeed, it will need “three things: good economics, a fast global product support network and certification from safety agencies,” said Richard Aboulafia, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory. “One of these three alone doesn't mean much,” he said.

According to Airbus' latest market forecast, China will need 9,570 new passenger aircraft between 2025 and 2044, of which more than 80% will be single-aisle aircraft such as the C919.

COMAC is facing a growing challenge from Airbus, which is expanding its production capacity in China. A second assembly line is scheduled to come online in 2026, allowing Airbus to increase production of single-aisle A320 jets in China – an aircraft model similar to the C919.

Analysts expect it will take years for COMAC to break the duopoly of Boeing and Airbus in the global aircraft share. By the late 2020s, COMAC is likely to grow within China and possibly establish regional exports, IBA's Taylor said.

In the short term, a lack of international certification will “delay any meaningful access to the Western market” because of the jetliner, and export control volatility will likely continue to undermine global expansion plans, Taylor added.