So far the swamp.
Donald Trump seems to have come from the worst crisis in the alienation of America with the Iran's Islamic Republic with a victory.
On Monday, the president jumped at the modest rocket reaction from Tehran to the American bumps of his nuclear locations as a sign that it wants to put an end to the escalations. “Congratulations world, it's time for peace!” He placed socially on truth.
Trump's exuberance was a sign that he sees the involvement of the US in the conflict as over, at least for the time being.
And he followed by announcing a cease -the fire between Iran and Israel that would come into effect later on Tuesday. Stoophuis in the middle -East are often vulnerable and volatile, as was underlined by attacks by both Israel and Iran in the hours before the ceasefire would be determined.
But the president was all his chosen image as a peacemaker and accomplished deal maker, only 48 hours after the American Stealth bombers had closed Iran.
“I think it is striking -the fires is unlimited. It's going to go forever,” Trump told NBC News on Monday evening, and predicts that Israel and Iran will never again “shoot”. “
That is a daring claim given the reputation of the Middle East as a cemetery of American presidencies. And for all Trump marketing skills, events will decide whether his breakthrough for real or just another illusion is.
Did the United States, as Trump claimed, really ensured that the 'destruction' of Iran's nuclear program, an existential threat to Israel? Or is it all a classic Trump Mirage, and does the striking unfinished things of this conflict – a seemingly missing stock of highly enriched uranium that can be made quickly in a bomb – means a deeper crisis?
A quick end of the fighting would be the presidency and legacy of Trump and stimulate a foreign policy that was previously characterized by failures such as the stalled peace efforts in Ukraine. But will the world change thoughts about the master of chaos if he really helps to alleviate tensions in a blood -driven region?
What is the next step for Israel? Does Trump trust Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop his attacks on Iran? And will Israel finally take steps to alleviate the pain of the Palestinian citizens, starved and dying by thousands in the attack in Gaza?
And in Tehran, the humiliation of the administrative regime of Iran and the shattering of the Midden -East network of fear will promote a political spring that many of his citizens desire?
Trump's victory
The president can claim the most important foreign policy and the military success of his time in the Oval Office. Trump bet that many skeptics saw as irresponsible -that he could hammer Iran's nuclear plants without dumping the US into a new middle -east -nuthas to mirror Iraq.
He has been proven well so far. Although Trump might initially had been uncomfortable about the attack of Israel on Iran, which seemed to be calculated, he claimed control and operated an opening to seriously demolish Iran's nuclear program with few costs for the US. After days of public plagues, his approach looked like a risky inspiration. He was certainly lucky. But he also demonstrated strategic insight and decisiveness and will always cherish in the daring mission of B-2-bombers that bunker-buster bombs wore on a marathon flight from Missouri.
If the conflict cools down now, Trump can get a domestic political boost, at least in the Gop, and be able to heal gorges in his Maga base, where some supporters thought he broke his promise not to start new wars.
The crisis also gave important insights into Trump's second presidency. It revealed that he is neither a tool of the remains of the Republican Hawks, nor the “America first” populists. And a core circle of trust arose around Trump, including joint Chiefs President General Dan Caine, CIA director John Ratcliffe and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, according to CNN report. However, the future of director of the National Intelligence Service Tulsi Gabbard and Minister of Defense Pete Hegseeth seem less insured.
The president is also determined to try again to get a deal with Iran to end her nuclear program through negotiations. But he has also shown that he is willing to handle overwhelming military force, a dent in the caricature of his taco (“Trump always chickens”) diplomacy.
Yet the crisis also emphasized more disturbing sides of Trump's leadership.
He has committed the US to military action without preparing the nation in advance and politicizing the mission by keeping top democrats out of the loop. This was only the last occasion when Trump disdain for the constitutional role of the congress and a feeling that he is the president of all Americans.
And he still has not shown Americans he used to justify the attacks on the site that Iran was removed from a weapon for weeks. He ignored our espionage agencies who discovered that Tehran had not made such a decision to build a bomb.
Trump also declined allies and mocked their peace efforts. This was the clearest sign so far from a volatile new worldwide age when the US has disconnected its alliances and ruthlessly pursue its own national interests.
The president writes all his preferred version of the history of what he calls the '12-Days War '. His claims to have eradicated the Iranian nuclear program already look like a sham display for some opposing evidence that emerges. It will be a brave American officer who contradicts the President's big victory.
An American Air Force Stealth Bomber returns from the American attack on the nuclear facilities of Iran, at Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, on June 2025. – US Air Force/Handout/Reuters
Where is Iran's nuclear program now?
The critical question arising from the conflict is unanswered.
But in his national late national address on Saturday, Trump said that the goal of the mission “was the destruction of the nuclear enrichment capacity of Iran and a stop for the nuclear threat to the world's number one state sponsor of Terror.”
Early estimates suggest that the Iranian facilities in Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow were seriously damaged. But it is much too early for Trump's bravado.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, for example, told CNN's Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that Iran had enriched a stock of 400 kg of uranium to 60% “protected” – just a shortage of the 90% grade needed to make a nuclear bomb.
In the meantime, Trump is convinced that his strategy Iran will bomb back to the negotiating table to talk about a replacement for the nuclear deal of President Barack Obama, who has thrown Trump away in his first term. But Iran's military leaders can take an opposite lesson from the conflict – that the only way for the revolution to survive to gain a nuclear bomb that will scare off future attacks. There is no sign yet that the condition of Trump for a deal – a verifiable end of the iranium enrichment of uranium – will be acceptable to Tehran.
“From a non -proliferation perspective, Trump's decision to hit Iran was a reckless, irresponsible escalation that will probably push Iran closer to nuclear weapons in the long term,” said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association. “The strikes have damaged the most important Iranian nuclear facilities, such as the underground Fordow enrichment site. But Tehran had enough time prior to the strikes to remove his stock from near-Weapons-Grade Uranium to a secret location, and it is likely that they did that.”
Non -proliferation -expert Joseph Cirincee told CNN's Phil Mattly about 'the leading role' that it was impossible to bomb the knowledge of Iran or enriched uranium and that it could rebuild its facilities. He warned that the missing uranium could be inserted by Iran in new centrifuges, it must make the core of a bomb within five days and 10 bombs within three weeks.
“That is my greatest concern. They race to develop that weapon before the US or Israel can find or destroy the gas?”
If those fears are realized, the victory round of Trump and the Republican admiration will be remembered as pure political negligence and the catalyst for an even worse global crisis in the future.
A changed middle -east
Iran's lobes about rockets in the direction of a huge American base in Qatar, easily thwarted by us and Qatari counter measures, revealed weakness after it had rejected control of his own airspace to Israeli jets. The grip of Tehran is also weakened outside its limits.
The regional network of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen – was once seen as the insurance policy of Iran against Israeli attacks on his nuclear program. But 20 months of Israeli attacks destroyed his proxies and had their sponsor exposed. Israel is now a dominant regional power. And we, allies such as Saudi -Arabia and Qatar, are skilled in a transformed Midden -Oost.
In the meantime, uncertainty clouds the domestic policy of Iran.
An already difficult transition as supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's rule enters his twilight, is now even more loaded. Outsiders will see if the grip of the regime is detached when the relatives of the periodic uprisings of Iran burst. But despite calls to regime change in Washington and Israel, more repression is likely.
Politics is also turbulent in Israel. The unwillingness of Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire with Hamas and this zeal to take the fight to Iranian soil is generally seen as a list to remain in the power in the midst of personal scandals and to prevent an accounting of 7 October 2023, attacks on his watch. Still, when the relative peace returns, Netanyahu can get a political leap for assuming Iran's nuclear program – a personal calling in power after decades.
The Trump-Netanyahu Dynamic will also be intriguing. The US president never stops looking for leverage. If he tends, he could use the enormous debt that Israel now owes to insist on a peace agreement in Gaza.
This latest scary episode of the Trump show may be finished.
But tune in next week for something extremely extreme.
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