The electric vehicle market in the United States is largely dependent on Democratic policies. There are federal tax breaks for car buyers. Subsidies for battery production. Cheap loans to build electric car factories. Subsidies for chargers. Regulations that encourage automakers to sell more vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions.
All that support — which amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars — could disappear soon after the inauguration of newly elected President Donald J. Trump, despite his close ties to Elon Musk, CEO of electric car maker Tesla.
Mr. Trump and Republicans in Congress say they plan to eliminate most federal support for electric cars and trucks and reverse emissions rules, casting doubt on the future of such vehicles and the billions dollars that automakers have invested to design and build them.
Still, many auto experts say market forces and technological advances will ultimately drive a long-term transition to electric vehicles, no matter how far Republicans go in undoing President Biden's climate agenda.
The prices of batteries, the most expensive part of an electric vehicle, are falling rapidly. If we take into account the savings on fuel and maintenance, many electric cars already cost no more to purchase than comparable petrol models.
Technology is improving rapidly. Batteries are becoming lighter and smaller, while being able to charge faster and enable longer travel distances. And in 2024, more than 12,000 public high-voltage chargers were added in the United States, an increase of 33 percent compared to the previous year, according to research firm Rho Motion.
Automakers have a strong financial interest in promoting electric vehicles, regardless of who is in the White House. They must achieve a return on the investments they have made in production facilities. And if they don't keep up with technology, they could become vulnerable to emerging Chinese competitors who are all-in on electric vehicles.
“Whatever policy changes the new administration puts forward, we will adhere to them and adjust accordingly,” Hyundai Motor America CEO Randy Parker told reporters on a conference call last week.
“Make no mistake,” he added, “we are committed to electrification.”
Hyundai recently started production of its popular Ioniq 5 car at a new $7.6 billion factory near Savannah, Georgia. That car and a large electric SUV are the first from the South Korean automaker to qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit. The factory complex, which will employ 8,500 people once capacity is reached, including at Hyundai's suppliers, is one of the biggest examples of the jobs and investment that electric vehicles have generated.
There is little doubt that sales of battery-powered cars, which typically cost more upfront than comparable gasoline-powered cars, will take a hit if Republicans repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, legislation that would have created the $7,500 credit and subsidies for manufacturing of batteries, installation of chargers and electric cars. school buses.
Rep. Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, a major oil and gas producer, repeated the threat after he was re-elected as speaker of the House of Representatives this month. “We're going to save the jobs of our automakers, and we're going to do that by ending the ridiculous EV mandates,” he said.
Analysts note that sales of electric vehicles in Germany fell 27 percent last year after the country's government cut incentives for car buyers.
“If the incentives disappear, there will certainly be an impact on sales,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive.
According to Cox, an electric car in the United States sold for an average of $55,105 in 2024, compared to $48,165 for a gasoline car.
But the price difference is half of what it was two years ago. Several affordable models are coming to market this year, and many analysts expect electric vehicles to cost the same or less than internal combustion cars by the end of the decade.
General Motors sells an electric Chevrolet Equinox for about $35,000 and plans to revive the Chevrolet Bolt at a lower price this year. Later this year, Honda will begin producing electric cars in Ohio. The Japanese company has not announced a price, but is known for affordable vehicles.
Tesla has said it will start selling a cheaper vehicle by the middle of this year, but has provided few details. Later this year, Volvo plans to sell a version of its EX30, which is expected to cost less than $37,000.
“We will be able to make the cost of electric cars lower than that of internal combustion engine cars,” said Kurt Kelty, GM's vice president in charge of batteries. “That's what we're aiming for.”
Many states, including Colorado, New York and Washington, provide electric vehicle subsidies that remain in effect. California Governor Gavin Newsom has said the state will revive its stimulus measures if federal tax credits are withdrawn.
In China, sales of electric vehicles soared as prices fell to the same level as gasoline cars or even lower, foreshadowing what could eventually happen in the United States. Half of all new cars sold in China are electric or plug-in hybrids, compared to about 10 percent in the United States.
When price was no longer a barrier, Chinese car buyers focused on the benefits of electric vehicles, including software features that would be difficult to install in gasoline cars, said Hagen Heubach, who heads the automotive business unit of SAP, a German software company. “A market can turn very quickly,” he said.
Chinese automakers' success and global expansion are also putting pressure on U.S. and European automakers to further develop the technology or risk being overwhelmed.
BYD, based in Shenzhen, China, produced 4.3 million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles last year, joining the major leagues of the global auto industry. BYD does not make vehicles that run exclusively on fossil fuels.
Most drivers believe that electric cars will eventually dominate, although they disagree on when that will happen. Sales of electric vehicles rose 8 percent in the United States last year, while sales of fossil fuel-only cars fell 2 percent, according to Cox.
Sales of plug-in hybrids, which can travel about 40 miles on battery power before a gasoline engine kicks in, rose 19 percent. That suggests many consumers are interested in electric driving, even if they aren't ready to ditch gasoline yet.
Only a small number of cars qualify for at least the federal tax credit for buyers. The Inflation Reduction Act limited eligibility for tax credits to vehicles for which a certain percentage of parts were made in the United States or by trading partners. The requirements become stricter every year, causing some vehicles to disappear from the list. From January 1, several models, including the Volkswagen ID.4 and Ford Mustang Mach-E, will no longer be eligible.
Republicans are also expected to target a provision that would allow leasing companies to collect the $7,500 credit on all battery-powered cars, regardless of where they are made. Leasing companies usually pass on the savings to customers.
Eliminating the credits would reduce electric car sales by more than 300,000 vehicles per year, equivalent to about three months of sales in 2024, according to a study published in October by professors at Stanford University; the University of Chicago; the University of California, Berkeley; and Duke University.
But the researchers also noted that many buyers would have purchased electric cars even without incentives. It seems some drivers are willing to pay more because battery-powered cars accelerate quickly and quietly; can be charged at home at a lower cost than refueling at a gas station; and require no oil changes or other routine maintenance.
Of course, many car buyers may remain reluctant to buy one for years.
Nearly half of Americans recently surveyed by the consulting firm Deloitte were concerned that electric cars can't travel far enough between charges. Yet most people rarely travel more than 60 miles from home, the study found, and most electric models can comfortably travel 200 to 300 miles without stopping.
It's not a given that Republicans will repeal any Democratic policies on electric vehicles, as many of them have supported new factories in states like Tennessee, Kentucky and South Carolina. Republicans would destroy jobs in their own strongholds.
Mr. Trump's inner circle also includes Mr. Musk, whose electric car company, Tesla, accounts for nearly half of electric vehicles sold in the United States and benefits from the credits. Mr Musk has supported the withdrawal of electric car subsidies, but it is not clear how he will use his influence once Mr Trump becomes president. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
Mr. Trump's campaign promises include “ending attacks on gasoline-powered cars,” Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for the president-elect's transition, said in an email. She suggested he take a more balanced approach. “President Trump will support the auto industry,” she said, “and create space for both gas and electric vehicles.”
Still, electric vehicle advocates worry about the disruption that is likely to come. Albert Gore III, executive director of the Zero Emission Transportation Association and son of the former Democratic vice president, said slower sales could undermine efforts to develop sources of lithium and other battery materials in the United States. China currently dominates that supply chain.
Mining companies “have been able to raise money in the capital markets and invest in U.S. manufacturing capacity based on solid demand commitments from U.S. automakers,” Mr. Gore said. “That would be the most pronounced impact.”
Even a modest slowdown in electric vehicle sales could seriously harm efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, environmentalists say.
“We're probably not moving fast enough right now,” said John Boesel, president of Calstart, a nonprofit organization backed by businesses and governments that promotes clean transportation. “So any attempt to delay or slow things down will have a negative impact for decades, if not centuries, to come.”
