Judge Juan Merchan's decision to uphold the sentencing of President-elect Donald Trump on Friday, just 10 days before the inauguration, took many people by surprise. Judge Merchan indicated in advance that he was not inclined to sentence Trump to prison and that he was indeed leaning toward an unconditional discharge — meaning Trump would not have to pay a fine or be supervised by a probation officer. He would walk away a free man, with no further obligations to the court.
Judge Merchan's critics had two main questions: Wouldn't this sentence amount to a slap on the wrist that undermines the rule of law? And why couldn't the judge wait and let the conviction hang over Trump's head until after he left office in four years, when his presidential immunity no longer applied?
It is not the usual situation a judge finds himself in when sentencing a convicted suspect. But the Supreme Court granted Trump immunity that no one else has: broad immunity from criminal prosecution for a president's official actions. The criminal conduct in the Manhattan case occurred before Trump became president and was clearly personal, not presidential, conduct. Trump used last year's Supreme Court ruling to delay his sentencing date to a point so close to the inauguration that a sentence including incarceration was no longer a realistic possibility.
But something more important than punishment is at stake here: conviction. In his judgment, Judge Merchan underlined the importance of the jury's decision. “The significance of the fact that the verdict was returned after the trial by a unanimous jury of twelve of the defendant's peers cannot possibly be overstated,” he wrote. “Indeed, the sanctity of a jury verdict and the deference that should be accorded it is a fundamental principle in our nation's jurisprudence.”
These are not just empty words. Trump was convicted after a fair and extensive trial. After hearing the evidence and listening to both witnesses and the defense team's arguments, Trump's jury found him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.
Trump now wants to erase that verdict and avoid being labeled a “convicted criminal” forever. He has repeatedly railed about how unfair the conviction was, claiming that prosecutors are corrupt and that Judge Merchan is “conflicted,” whatever that means. Trump wants the jury's verdict, an assessment of his guilt by his peers, to simply disappear.
And that is what could easily have happened if Judge Merchan had imposed a custodial sentence or decided to defer sentencing.
The key to ensuring Trump cannot overturn the jury's verdict is completing the appeal. Until then, the conviction is not final. The appeal clock starts once the conviction is pronounced. Once Trump is convicted, he has 30 days to file charges. If Judge Merchan had postponed sentencing until 2029, Trump's conviction would not be final.
Four years is a long time and anything can happen. By then, there may be new prosecutors or a new judge, with different ideas about how to proceed. If a defendant dies before the appeal is completed, the conviction lapses, also known as abatement ab initio. Trump will be 82 when he leaves office. Justice delayed can result in justice denied. And Trump has already benefited enough from delays.
On Monday, Trump tried to convince Judge Merchan to delay the sentencing. The judge refused. On Tuesday, a judge in New York denied Trump's request for emergency stay. Trump's lawyers argued that presidential immunity should protect their client even before he takes office. But the judge was not convinced. Trump's crimes predate his first presidency, and there is no legal support for a doctrine of pre-presidential immunity.
On Wednesday morning, Trump escalated the appeal process and asked the United States Supreme Court to intervene on his behalf. Whether he can convince the court to postpone his sentencing before Friday remains to be seen.
If he cannot do so, the appeal will continue. Trump will be able to argue that his conviction should be overturned. This case has always focused on that point. But the prosecutor in this case was careful and the judge, despite Trump's complaints, was fair and respectful of the suspect's rights. There is every reason to believe that the convictions will be upheld on appeal. If that happens, the conviction will be final at the end of the appeal, meaning Trump will forever be a convicted felon.
Trump posted on Truth Social that if this were to happen, his conviction would “mean the end of the presidency as we know it.” That is not the case. Trump will simply have been treated like all others tried and convicted in the criminal justice system, where conviction follows conviction.
Judge Merchan understands that jury verdicts matter. And in this case, the verdict is more important than the punishment. He followed a path designed to ensure that the difficult work of a Manhattan jury would not disappear and that its convictions would stand. And in doing so, he will be remembered as someone who refused to bow to seemingly ruthless pressure and instead upheld the rule of law.
This article was originally published on MSNBC.com
