America’s most popular governor has no real political future.
Massachusetts Republican Charlie Baker tops (again) the list of America’s most beloved governors in a new Morning Consult poll released this week. That’s an extraordinary feat: Massachusetts is among the bluest of the blue states — President Biden won nearly two-thirds of his vote in 2020 — but Baker has been remarkably popular for much of his tenure.
That should mean something for the rest of his career. For more than 30 years – between 1976 and 2004 – America chose a series of governors for the White House. (George HW Bush was the only exception.) The country’s state buildings were more reliable launch pads for the presidency than the US Senate. So, of course, a Republican governor with such massive inter-party appeal would have to think about a run for the Oval Office, right?
Maybe not. Baker has never felt comfortable in the MAGAfied version of the GOP: He left his 2016 and 2020 presidential ballots blank instead of voting for Donald Trump, and he criticized Trump’s performance during the pandemic. Trump may not be as king-maker within the Republican Party as he is often portrayed, but his power is real and destructive. He can pause conservative careers. So while Baker could probably win another Massachusetts re-election — though he won’t try — he probably wouldn’t get very far by winning an out-of-state Republican primary.
Interesting is the Morning Consult list. No Democrat is among the most popular governors in the country. (Kentucky’s Andy Beshear comes in at number 12.) But the top 10 is dotted with Republicans who were annoyed at the party’s turn to Trump: Phil Scott of Vermont, Larry Hogan of Maryland, Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, and Spencer Cox of Utah all have relationships with the former president and his supporters. Hogan could run for the GOP nomination in 2024. He will almost certainly lose.
That is not good for democracy. For most of their history, political parties have tried to win elections by increasing their appeal. Logical, right? Now popular candidates within the Republican Party have become suspicious, banned by Trump and the party’s most committed activists to “RINO” territory in favor of a leader who twice lost the national popular vote. That’s either a sign that the GOP is about to enter a long period of losing elections – or it means the party no longer thinks it needs to win votes to come to power.
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