With the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines approved yesterday, some Americans are now guessing about when to get their dose: right away, while the summer surge is peaking, a bit later in the fall to maximize protection for the coming winter surge, or maybe a few weeks before a big family event at the end of the year? Of course, the group pondering such a question is only a small slice of the U.S.
An estimated 22.5 percent of adults and 14 percent of children in the country have received the 2023-2024 vaccine. In contrast, an estimated 48.5 percent of adults and 54 percent of children have received a flu shot. The stark difference comes despite the fact that COVID-19 is deadlier than the flu and the SARS-CoV-2 virus is more rapid in spreading than seasonal flu viruses.
At a press conference on Friday, federal health officials quickly shifted their focus as reporters asked questions about the timing of COVID-19 vaccinations in the coming months and the possibility of updating the vaccines twice a year, instead of just once, to keep pace with a virus that is evolving and causing waves in both summer and winter.
“The problem right now is not that the virus is evolving so quickly, at least in my estimation,” Peter Marks, the top vaccine regulator at the Food and Drug Administration, told reporters. “It's that we don't have the benefit of the vaccine, which [to say] that it's not vaccines that prevent disease, it's vaccination. It's getting vaccines into arms.” Exactly when you get the vaccine is a matter of personal choice, Marks continued, but the most important choice is to get vaccinated.
Estimates for this winter
The press conference, which included several federal health officials, was intended to highlight the government’s preparations and hopes for the upcoming respiratory virus season. The FDA, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are urging all Americans to get their respiratory virus vaccines: flu, COVID-19, and RSV.
CDC Director Mandy Cohen introduced an updated data site that provides snapshots of local respiratory virus activity, national trends, data visualizations and the latest guidance in one place. HHS, meanwhile, highlighted a new outreach campaign called “Risk Less. Do More.” to raise awareness of COVID-19 and encourage vaccination, particularly among at-risk groups. For those who are not at high risk, health officials still stress the importance of vaccination to reduce transmission and prevent serious outcomes, including long-term COVID. “There is no group without risk,” Cohen said, noting that the group with the highest rates of emergency room visits for COVID-19 were children under 5, who are not typically considered high risk.
So far, CDC models estimate that this year’s winter wave of COVID-19 will be similar, or even slightly weaker at some metrics, than last year’s winter wave, Cohen said. But she stressed that the modeling makes many assumptions, including how the virus will evolve in the near future and the rate of vaccine uptake. The modeling assumes that current omicron variants continue on their evolutionary path and that vaccination rates in the U.S. are about the same as last year. Of course, beating last year’s vaccination rate could blunt transmission.
