Debby is expected to reach Florida's Big Bend on Monday morning, likely as a hurricane.
Concerns in Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia are centered around heavy rain – possibly very heavy, rough seas and surf, a high risk of rip currents and a few tornadoes/waterspouts. Winds should be gusty but not severe from Highway 301 to the beaches, but will be stronger and possibly damaging from Lake City to Waycross.
Florida is the 'fork in the road' in terms of direction of movement and especially forward speed.
There is a chance of rapid reinforcement as the land attack approaches.
Be aware throughout Florida, the eastern Gulf Coast, and the eastern US coast.
Heavy rain and storms will affect Florida, Georgia and the coastal Carolinas through midweek.
A reminder that Jax/NO Fl./SE Ga. will be on the “messy” eastern side of the storm.
Please note that Debby's impacts will be felt miles away from the center and OUTSIDE the forecast cone.
The predictions are still uncertain and subject to change
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Specific data mainly for NO Fl./SE Ga. given the *current* predicted trajectory:
Rainfall: Severe flooding is a legitimate concern. Amounts through Wednesday will average 6-12″, locally higher. As much as 10-15″, possibly approaching 2 feet, is well within the realm of possibility from Lake City to Waycross eastward across SE Ga. as Debby slows and possibly stalls. Strong/steady southerly winds on Monday could push water from the St. Johns River into parts of downtown Jacksonville. Rainfall will be heavier the further north and west across N. Fl & SE Ga.
Wind: Sustained winds will average 20-30 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph from Highway 301 to the coast, though higher speeds will be possible at/near the beaches due to less friction. Sustained winds could peak at 50-60 mph with gusts of 70+ mph from Lake City to Waycross on Monday due to the proximity to downtown.
Tornadoes/waterspouts: There is an isolated threat on Sunday afternoon, which will increase later on Sunday evening through Monday/Monday night.
Ocean: Seas will average 7-12 feet off Ga. & Fl., possibly higher by Tuesday depending on exactly where Debby is and how strong. Waves will increase to 6-10+ feet. The onshore wind component will not last long which is good for the beaches.
Rip currents: High to very high risk of rip currents on beaches in the area. Best advice is to stay out of the ocean.
Storm surge: Little. Most of the flooding will be caused by rainfall.
Blackouts: Sporadic for the I-95 corridor, but more widespread and significant from Waycross, Ga. to Lake City, Fl.
Here you can see your 7-day forecast:
STRAIGHT AWAY: Mostly cloudy, windy, very humid with rain showers. A few showers moving north, mainly over northeastern Florida.
THE TROPICS: Another tropical wave is approaching the Caribbean. This one at least has some potential for long term development – next name “Ernesto”… another wave has just come off the African coast and bears are watching.
THIS EVENING: Evening and late night showers and thunderstorms….becoming windy. Low: 78
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy periods with showers and thunderstorms. High: 85
MONDAY NIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms, windy. Low: 77
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and windy with showers and thunderstorms. High: 85
WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy and windy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: 86
THURSDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers and storms. High: 89
FRIDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers and storms. High: 90
SATURDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High: 91
SUNDAY: Partly sunny with scattered showers and storms. High: 91
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