With one month to go until the primaries, Pennsylvania Lt. Governor John Fetterman is in the polls for the Democratic Party’s nomination for an open U.S. Senate seat, as the Republican race has narrowed to an expensive two-person contest.
The retirement of Republican Senator Pat Toomey has led to two primaries in what may be the Democratic Party’s best shot at winning a Senate seat in the fall. Fetterman, the Democratic frontrunner since the start of the race, wants to maintain his lead in the polls until the May 17 primaries.
Fetterman has been a prolific fundraiser, building on a reputation he built in the wake of the 2020 presidential election, when he loudly refuted claims of voter fraud by Republicans. Tall, tattooed and tattooed Fetterman has a signature look for a would-be senator, standing out in crowds as he campaigns through rural areas where the GOP typically enjoys wide margins of victory.
Fetterman has campaigned for legalizing recreational marijuana use and ending legislative filibuster in the Senate, and is an outspoken advocate for gay and transgender rights, including flying a pro-trans flag from his office in Harrisburg.
His biggest rival in the Democratic primary is Rep. Conor Lamb, a moderate who represents a district in Pittsburgh. Last month, Politico reported that Lamb was 30 points behind Fetterman. Since then, a super-PAC aligned with Lamb began airing an ad calling Fetterman a “self-proclaimed Democratic socialist.”
The ad landed with a thud, largely because that’s not how Fetterman describes himself, and has been criticized by leading Democratic lawmakers like Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren before they were taken off the air. While Lamb had his best fundraising quarter to start the year, Fetterman has millions more on hand.
Fetterman has been criticized for skipping the first debate with Lamb and Malcolm Kenyatta, a state legislator who is also running for the Democratic nomination. Lamb was also punched for a 2013 incident in which Fetterman — then the mayor of Braddock, a small Pittsburgh suburb — chased an unarmed black jogger with a shotgun.
Fetterman has said he thought he had heard gunshots and was unaware of the jogger’s race as he chased the man. “The people of Braddock understand that John, as mayor and chief of law enforcement officer, was acting to protect his community,” an employee told the Associated Press earlier this month.
Although he skipped the first debate and another candidate forum, Fetterman is expected to participate in three televised debates ahead of the primaries, the first of which will be held Thursday.
“Debates are an important part of these primaries and I am proud to have already captured three of them,” Fetterman said in a statement in late March. “Since the beginning of this campaign, we believe voters deserve three debates that reach most households in Pennsylvania markets.”
The attacks have yet to have a major impact, at least according to a Franklin & Marshall College Poll released last week which showed Fetterman had 41% support among registered Democrats, compared to 17% who supported Lamb and 4% for Kenyatta.
The Republican race, meanwhile, seems far from settled, with two candidates leading the rest of the field in both polls and fundraising: Dr. Mehmet Oz, the former talk show host and cardiothoracic surgeon who moved from New Jersey to run in the race, and David McCormick, a former hedge fund manager who moved from Connecticut.
McCormick has hired a number of staffers from former President Donald Trump and has portrayed himself as an “America First” candidate. He also gained the support of Sean Parnell, a former congressional candidate who was backed by former President Donald Trump before abruptly leaving the race over allegations of domestic violence.
But that wasn’t enough to prevent Trump from backing Oz earlier this month in an endorsement that immediately proved controversial among the ex-president’s supporters. In an April 9 statement, Trump argued that Oz — a regular on Sean Hannity’s Fox News show — “would do really well in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, where other candidates just won’t be accepted.”
Trump’s endorsement will likely help Oz fight allegations that he’s not conservative enough, though McCormick has largely stuck with that line of attack, accusing the famed doctor of being a former liberal.
The two wealthy Republican rivals have been harassing each other in TV ads since late last year. According to financial disclosure forms, Oz and McCormick had collectively spent $18 million of their own money on the race through the end of March. McCormick also has the backing of a super-PAC that received $5 million earlier this year from Ken Griffin, head of hedge funds in Chicago.
Oz, who would become the first Islamist senator in the US, has accused McCormick of “vulnerable attacks” and said he would renounce his dual citizenship with Turkey if elected to the Senate. Oz served in the Turkish army in the 1980s and says he will retain his citizenship to “take care of my ailing mother,” who lives in Turkey.
Both the unbiased Cook Political Report and the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia rate November’s general election as a shot at the case.
In addition to the Senate race and a number of competitive House races, Pennsylvania has an open governor race, with incumbent Democrat Tom Wolf resigning due to term limits.
In recent years, the state has had some good results in major races, including the last two presidential races and Toomey’s re-election in 2016, all of which were decided by less than 2 points.
