ISTANBUL — Colossal ships carrying Ukrainian wheat and other grains lie along the Bosphorus here in Istanbul as they await inspections before continuing to ports around the world.
The number of ships passing through this narrow strait, which connects Black Sea ports to wider waters, plummeted when Russia invaded Ukraine ten months ago and imposed a naval blockade. Under diplomatic pressure, Moscow has started allowing some ships in, but continues to restrict most shipments from Ukraine, which once shared a quarter of the world’s wheat with Russia.
And in the few Ukrainian ports that are operational, Russian missiles and drone attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid periodically paralyze grain terminals where wheat and corn are loaded onto ships.
An ongoing global food crisis has become one of the far-reaching consequences of the Russian war, contributing to widespread famine, poverty and premature deaths.
The United States and allies are struggling to contain the damage. US officials are organizing efforts to help Ukrainian farmers get food from their land through rail and road networks connecting to Eastern Europe and on barges traveling up the Danube.
But as winter sets in and Russia attacks Ukraine’s infrastructure, the crisis deepens. Food shortages are already being exacerbated by drought in the Horn of Africa and unusually harsh weather in other parts of the world.
The United Nations World Food Program estimates that more than 345 million people suffer from or are at risk of acute food insecurity, more than double the number in 2019.
“We are now facing a massive food insecurity crisis,” US Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said at a summit with African leaders in Washington last month. “It’s the product of a lot of things, as we all know,” he said, “including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”
The food shortages and high prices are causing intense pain in Africa, Asia and America. US officials are particularly concerned about war-ravaged Afghanistan and Yemen. Egypt, Lebanon and other major food importing countries are finding it difficult to pay their debts and other expenses as costs have skyrocketed. Even in wealthy countries like the United States and Britain, rising inflation, caused in part by the disruptions of war, has left poorer people without enough to eat.
“By attacking Ukraine, the breadbasket of the world, Putin is attacking the world’s poor, increasing global hunger while people are already on the brink of starvation,” said United States Agency Administrator Samantha Power. for International Development, or USAID.
Ukrainians compare the events to the Holodomor, when Joseph Stalin caused a famine in Soviet-ruled Ukraine 90 years ago, killing millions.
Mr Blinken announced on December 20 that the US government would begin granting blanket exemptions from its economic sanctions programs worldwide to ensure that food aid and other aid continued to flow. The action should ensure that companies and organizations do not withhold their aid for fear of US sanctions.
State Department officials said it was the most significant change in US sanctions policy in years. The United Nations Security Council passed a similar resolution on sanctions last month.
But Russia’s deliberate disruption of global food supplies poses an entirely different problem.
Moscow has restricted its own exports, driving up costs elsewhere. Most importantly, it has halted the sale of fertilizers that the world’s farmers need. Before the war, Russia was the largest fertilizer exporter.
Hostilities in Ukraine have also had a major impact. From March to November, Ukraine exported an average of 3.5 million tons of grains and oilseeds per month, a sharp drop from the five million to seven million tons per month it exported before the war began in February, according to data from the country. Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food Supply.
That number would be even lower had it not been for an agreement reached in July by the United Nations, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine, called the Black Sea Grain Initiative, in which Russia agreed to allow exports from three Ukrainian seaports.
Russia continues to block seven of the 13 ports used by Ukraine. (Ukraine has 18 ports, but five are in Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014.) In addition to the three on the Black Sea, three on the Danube are operational.
The initial deal was only for four months, but was extended for a further four months in November. When Russia threatened to leave the country in October, world food prices rose by five to six percent, said Isobel Coleman, deputy administrator at USAID.
“The effects of this war are huge, hugely disruptive,” she said. Putin is pushing millions of people into poverty.
While food prices have risen particularly sharply in the Middle East, North Africa and South America over the past year, no region has remained immune.
“You’re looking at price increases of everything from 60 percent in the US to 1,900 percent in Sudan,” said Sara Menker, the CEO of Gro Intelligence, a climate and agriculture data platform that tracks food prices.
Before the war, food prices had already risen to their highest level in more than a decade due to pandemic supply chain disruptions and persistent drought.
The United States, Brazil and Argentina, the world’s leading grain producers, have experienced three consecutive years of drought. The level of the Mississippi River dropped so much that ships carrying American grain to ports were temporarily grounded.
The weakening of many foreign currencies against the US dollar has also forced some countries to purchase less food from the international market than in recent years.
“There were a lot of structural problems, and then the war just made it worse,” Ms Menker said.
US officials say the Russian military deliberately attacked grain storage facilities in Ukraine, a potential war crime, and destroyed wheat processing plants.
Many farmers in Ukraine have gone to war or fled their country, and the infrastructure that processed and transported wheat and sunflower oil to foreign markets has broken down.
On a farm 300 kilometers south of Kiev, 40 of the 350 workers have enlisted in the army. And the farm suffers from other shortages. Kees Huizinga, the Dutch co-owner, said Russia’s attacks on the energy grid led to the closure of a factory that supplies his farm and others with nitrogen fertilizer.
Other fertilizer plants in Europe had to halt or slow down production last year as natural gas prices soared as a result of the war. Natural gas is essential for fertilizer production.
“So this year’s harvest has already been reduced,” Mr. Huizinga said in November. “And if the Russians continue like this, next year’s crop could be even worse.”
He added that transport costs for farmers in Ukraine have risen sharply.
Before the war, farmers shipped 95 percent of the country’s wheat and grain exports through the Black Sea. Mr. Huizinga’s farm paid $23 to $24 a ton to transport its products to ports and on ships. Now costs have more than doubled, he said. And an alternative route – by truck to Romania – costs $85 per ton.
Mr Huizinga said Russia’s compromise on Black Sea shipments has helped, but he suspects Moscow is hampering operations by delaying inspections.
Under the scheme, any ship leaving one of Ukraine’s three Black Sea ports must be inspected by joint teams of Ukrainian, Russian, Turkish and UN staff once the ship reaches Istanbul.
The teams search for unauthorized cargo or crew members, and ships bound for Ukraine must be empty, said Ismini Palla, a spokeswoman for the UN agency overseeing the program.
UN data shows that the number of inspections has fallen in recent weeks. The parties agreed to deploy three teams every day, Ms Palla said, adding that the United Nations has asked for more.
“We hope this will change soon so that Ukrainian ports can operate at a higher capacity again,” she said. “Ukrainian exports remain a vital element in the fight against global food insecurity.”
Ms Palla said the parties’ decision in November to renew the agreement contributed to a 2.8 percent drop in global wheat prices.
According to an index compiled by the United Nations, food prices have fallen over the past six months from this spring’s highs. But they remain much higher than in previous years.
One uncertainty for farmers this winter is the rising price of fertilizer, one of their biggest costs.
Farmers passed on the higher costs by raising the price of food products. And many farmers use less fertilizer on their fields. This will lead to lower crop yields in the coming seasons, causing food prices to rise.
Subsistence farms, which produce nearly a third of the world’s food, are being hit even harder, Ms Coleman said.
In a communiqué issued at the end of their meeting in Bali, Indonesia, in November, the leaders of the Group of 20 countries said they were deeply concerned about challenges to global food security and pledged to strengthen international efforts to strengthen food supply chains. support to function. .
“We need to strengthen trade cooperation, not weaken it,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director-general of the World Trade Organization, said at the summit.
The US government spends about $2 billion a year on global food security and after the last major food crisis in 2010 started a program called Feed the Future, which now spans 20 countries.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the United States has provided more than $11 billion to address the food crisis. That includes a $100 million program called AGRI-Ukraine, which has helped about 13,000 farmers in Ukraine — 27 percent of the total — access finance, technology, transportation, seeds, fertilizer, bags and mobile storage units, Ms Coleman said .
The efforts could help rebuild the country while alleviating the global food crisis: One-fifth of Ukraine’s economy is in the agricultural sector and one-fifth of the country’s workforce is associated with it.
“It’s hugely important for Ukraine’s economy,” she said, “and for Ukraine’s economic survival.”
Edward Wong reported from Istanbul and Washington, and Anne Swanson from Washington.
