Volodymyr Zelensky's suggestion that Ukraine could temporarily cede territory to Russia in exchange for joining NATO would represent a “major concession” to Vladimir Putin, the former British ambassador to Russia has said.
In a major development towards a possible ceasefire after 33 months of conflict, Ukraine's president indicated for the first time that Kiev could accept Russian control over part of its territory to end the ' hot phase of the war'.
As Moscow appears to be stepping up its push for territory in eastern Ukraine ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House in January, Zelensky told Sky News that peace could come if the territory he controls “ under the umbrella of NATO”, leaving him to later negotiate “diplomatically” for the return of the rest.
Sir Tony Brenton – who was ambassador to Russia between 2004 and 2008 – praised Mr Zelensky for “playing a very sophisticated game”, telling the broadcaster: “He knows Trump is about to descend on him and Russia. He is already arranging to have something to offer Trump.
“What he is suggesting in many ways gets us much closer to the obvious target area, which is a freeze on fighting where the lines are currently located, and then an eventual negotiation over who keeps what bit of territory, and then security guarantees. for Ukraine in the course of that ceasefire.”
He warned that NATO membership for Ukraine “will be, frankly, very, very difficult.” seen by Putin as a concession.
“That's actually a pretty big concession, because the longer term could be very long indeed,” he said, adding: “[Putin] will say to themselves: 'Ah, they feel weak, I can push for more'. That is a danger if we go into this.”
The Russian president is currently “keeping his cards very close to his chest” when it comes to his views on how to end the conflict he believes he can win, Sir Tony said. Moscow's forces have made steady gains in eastern Ukraine, but at the cost of potentially record numbers of casualties.
Zelensky has suggested that the parts of Ukraine under his control should be placed 'under the NATO umbrella' (Sky News)
In line with this view, James Nixey of the Chatham House think tank warned that part of Ukraine joining NATO would be unacceptable to Mr Putin.
“After all, it's a horror for him. “Putin doesn’t want a break anyway – he believes he is on the brink of a historic and strategic victory, so graciously sealed by Donald Trump,” Nixey said. The independent.
But if such a deal were to be struck, both Kiev and its allies could present it as a victory in securing “a free democratic Ukraine connected to the West”, Sir Tony said.
In further comments to Sky News, Britain's former representative to NATO, Sir Adam Thomson, said Mr Zelensky appeared to be preparing the domestic public for compromise as he “made inroads” in what is likely to be a wide-ranging negotiation with Mr Trump about which line to take. with the Kremlin.
“He brings Ukraine to a much more realistic position. Still not necessarily feasible, but more realistic,” Sir Adam said, adding that around three-quarters of NATO members believe that membership of Kyiv would be “the least bad outcome, in the sense that it is the least expensive and the most stable is”.
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin held closed-door talks without advisers in Helsinki in July 2018 (AFP via Getty Images)
If such an agreement were to be reached, NATO troops – including from Britain – would have to defend Ukraine's borders, including its northern border with Belarus, Mr Nixey said, adding: “Whether NATO is fully prepared is doubtful about this possibility. ”
Throughout the conflict, Zelensky never said he would cede occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, which Russia occupied in February 2014. In September 2022, Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhia – despite not controlling all of them.
Still, war analysts say Russia has gained ground on Ukraine's eastern front in recent weeks, at the fastest pace since the early days of the war, as both Moscow and Kiev look ahead to Trump's return in January. The US president-elect has claimed he can end the war “in one day”.
Historian Dr. Mark Galeotti, author of Forged in War: A Military History of RussiaMr. Zelensky's comments likely partly reflect “the unfolding political and military reality, as the Russians continue to make progress and the shadow of Donald Trump looms over everything.”
“But I think it could also be Zelensky's attempt to essentially call the West's bluff,” Dr. Galeotti said. The independent. “It would be very difficult to get all 32 NATO members to agree to rapid membership, but in fact he asks: “If the security guarantee of Article 5 is not there, what else could can be offered?”
Zelenskiy's former foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said earlier this week that it was unthinkable that he could sign an agreement surrendering territory. Politics: “The Russians keep the Donbas, they keep Crimea, no NATO membership. Can Zelensky draw? That is not possible because of the constitution. And because politically it will mean the end of Zelensky.”
Last month, Zelensky unveiled his “victory plan,” which calls for Ukraine's unconditional accession to NATO, a refusal to trade in Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russian forces, and the continuation of the Ukrainian incursion into Russian Kursk region.
