It has only been three months since world leaders met at the climate summit in Glasgow and made ambitious commitments to reduce the use of fossil fuels. The dangers of a warming planet are no less catastrophic now, but the debate over the all-important renewable energy transition has taken a back seat to energy security as Russia – Europe’s largest energy supplier – threatens to embark on a major showdown with the West over Ukraine as the oil price rises towards $100 a barrel.
For more than a decade, policy discussions in Europe and beyond on reducing gas, oil and coal have emphasized safety and the environment at the expense of financial and economic considerations, says Lucia van Geuns, strategic energy advisor at the Hague Center for Strategic studies. Now it’s the other way around.
“Gas prices got very high and suddenly security of supply and price became the main topic of public debate,” she said.
The renewed emphasis on energy independence and national security may prompt policymakers to fall back on efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels that pump deadly greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The skyrocketing prices have already led to additional production and consumption of fuels that contribute to global warming. Coal imports to the European Union rose by more than 56 percent in January from the previous year.
In Britain, the Coal Authority last month authorized a mine in Wales to increase production by 40 million tons over the next two decades. In Australia, there are plans to open or expand more coking coal mines. And China, which has traditionally made energy security a priority, has further ramped up its coal production, approving three new billion-dollar coal mines this week.
“Get your gear,” Jennifer Granholm, the US Secretary of Energy, said in December, urging US oil producers to increase production. Shale companies in Oklahoma, Colorado and other states are trying to restart drilling that had stopped because there was suddenly money to be made. And this month, Exxon Mobil announced plans to increase spending on new oil wells and other projects.
Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford, warned that high energy prices could lead to more research into traditional fossil fuels. “Governments will want to deprioritize renewables and renewables, which would be exactly the wrong response,” he said.
Europe’s transition to renewable energy has always been a complex undertaking, requiring it to move away from the dirtiest fossil fuels such as coal, while still working with gas and oil producers to power homes, cars and factories until better alternatives are available.
For Germany, reliance on Russian gas has been an integral part of its environmental blueprint for many years. Plans for the first direct pipeline between the two countries, Nord Stream 1, started in 1997. Berlin, a leader in the fight to reduce CO2 emissions, has moved to coal mines and nuclear power plants after the 2011 disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant . in Japan. The idea was that Russian gas would provide the necessary fuel during the years-long transition to cleaner energy sources. Two-thirds of the gas that Germany burned last year came from Russia.
Future plans called for even more gas to be delivered through Nord Stream 2, a new 746-mile pipeline under the Baltic Sea that connects Russia directly to northeastern Germany.
On Tuesday, after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia recognized two breakaway republics in Ukraine and mobilized troops, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz halted the latest regulatory review of the $11 billion pipeline, which was completed last year.
“I don’t think the threat from Russia outweighs the threat of climate change, and I don’t see any coal mines in all of Europe,” said James Nixey, director of Chatham House’s Russia-Eurasia program, a research organization. in London.
Certainly, the path of the energy transition has never been clear. Five climate summits have taken place in the last 30 years and progress has always been made. This latest setback is arguably the latest in a long line of interim measures and setbacks.
But without a more comprehensive strategy to get rid of gas, Europe will not be able to meet its target of a 55 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels, or meet the summit’s target. Glasgow to reduce net greenhouse gases to zero by 2050.
like mr. Nixey acknowledged, “this debate is changing” as leaders are forced to recognize the downsides of reliance on Russian energy.
Even in Germany, where the progressive Greens have gained a more influential voice in government, the tone is shifting.
This month, Robert Habeck, Germany’s new economy and climate change minister and member of the Greens, said events had underscored the need to diversify supplies. “We need to act here and protect ourselves better,” he said. “If we don’t, we become a pawn in the game.”
Energy prices began to soar before Putin began rallying troops on Ukraine’s eastern border as countries emerged from pandemic lockdowns and demand skyrocketed.
But as Mr Putin acted aggressively against Ukraine and energy prices continued to rise, the political and strategic vulnerabilities of Russia’s control over such much of Europe’s supply became central.
“Europe is quite dependent on Russian gas and oil, and that is unsustainable,” said Sarah E. Mendelson, principal of Heinz College in Washington. She added that the United States and its European allies had paid too little attention to energy independence in recent years.
In total, Europe gets more than a third of its natural gas and 25 percent of its oil from Russia. Deliveries have slowed significantly in recent months, while reserves in Europe have fallen to just 31 percent of capacity.
For critics of the European Union’s climate policy, the sudden focus away from greenhouse gas emissions and on existing fuel reserves is valid.
Arkadiusz Siekaniec, vice president of the miners’ union in Poland, has long argued that the European Union’s push to end coal production on the continent was folly. But now he hopes others can follow his point.
Climate policy “is a suicide mission” that could make the entire region overly dependent on Russian fuel, Mr Siekaniec said last week as US troops landed in his country. “It threatens the economy as well as the citizens of Europe and Poland.”
For Mateusz Garus, a blacksmith in Jankowice, a coal mine in Upper Silesia, the heart of the coal country, politics, not climate change, are the driving force behind policy. “We will destroy the energy sector,” he said, “and we will depend on others like Russia.”
