Attempts to get the Biden administration to support the transfer of Russian fighter jets to Ukraine seem doomed for technical as well as geopolitical reasons.
Why it matters: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pleaded for the jets on Saturday during a Zoom call to more than 300 members of Congress, saying they were desperately needed if NATO did not establish a “no-fly” zone.
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Those jets would likely be Soviet-era MiG-29s owned by Poland that could serve Ukrainian pilots.
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The US, in turn, would supplement the Polish fleet with American-made F-16s.
Reality check: White House press secretary Jen Psaki reiterated Monday that the US would in no way oppose Poland’s “sovereign decision” to hand over its planes, but emphasized that there are a number of logistical hurdles.
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Those include how the planes would actually enter Ukraine’s heavily contested airspace, as well as how to speed up the years-long US procurement process for “serious weapons systems” like the F-16.
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The Russians have also bombed Ukrainian airports, raising the specter that the planes would have to be stationed in Poland or other NATO territory – raising the risk of a Russian attack on land that should be defended by the alliance.
Between the lines: Zelensky’s appeal caused an immediate and two-pronged tidal wave of support.
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Senate Speaker Bob Menendez (DNJ) sent a letter Monday calling on the Biden administration to “do everything possible to compensate countries that heed Ukraine’s desperate call for fighter jets to defend their homeland.”
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His Republican counterpart, Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho), tweeted: “There is absolutely no reason why we can’t deliver planes to Zelensky and the Ukrainians. Our allies are willing and able to deliver them, the admin has to get out. off the road.”
Between the lines: Top Russian military expert Michael Kofman says it is a mistake to “waste time” on the MiG debate, arguing that there are other supplies and weapons systems that could help Ukraine more.
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“Honestly, many of the planes that Ukraine has lined up have been shot down,” Kofman said.
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“And push MiG-29s – are they really going to fly from air bases that are easily shelled daily and at night?”
Zoom out: There is also the question of whether Poland itself is willing to risk provoking Russia, although the calculation in Warsaw could change if it were given rock-solid security guarantees from the US.
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Calling a Wall Street Journal Report on Possible MiG-F16 Deal “FAKE NEWS” on Sunday, Polish Prime Minister’s Office tweeted“Poland will not send its fighter jets to Ukraine, nor will it allow them to use its airports. We are helping significantly in many other areas.”
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A government spokesman explained to a public broadcaster on Monday: “It is a very delicate matter. The Polish authorities have not made any decisions about the transfer of the planes to Ukraine.”
The big picture: The risk of being viewed as a “combatant” by Russia continues to permeate every decision by the US and NATO on arms transfers and intelligence sharing.
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