NASA cancels Artemis I launch attempt, but delays decision to roll back

NASA announced on Saturday that it will no longer attempt to launch its Artemis I mission on Tuesday, Sept. 27, as Tropical Storm Ian continues to develop in the Caribbean Sea.

Instead of preparing the massive Space Launch System rocket for launch in three days, teams from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida will instead begin configuring the ground systems and vehicle for a possible rollback to a large hangar, the Vehicle Assembly Building. Hiding in this building would protect the $4 billion rocket and Orion spacecraft from bad weather caused by Ian.

Previously, NASA had said it would make a decision on Saturday afternoon whether or not to roll back the Artemis I mission into the hangar. However, in its announcement on Saturday, the agency said it would now make that decision on Sunday.

“Engineers have postponed a final decision on the role until Sunday, Sept. 25 to allow for additional data collection and analysis,” the space agency said in a blog post. “If Artemis I executives choose to roll back, it would start late Sunday night or early Monday morning.”

According to a spokesperson for the agency, NASA will not set a new launch date until the decision on Artemis I is reversed. Theoretically, September 28 is in play, but right now the forecasts are looking pretty bad and it may not be possible to reconfigure the rocket for a launch by then. That would leave October 1 and 2 as the most likely options. The current launch period closes on October 5. After that time, NASA will have to return to the Vehicle Assembly Building come what may, delaying the highly anticipated Artemis I launch until no earlier than the second half of November.

A wise decision

NASA is buying some time with this decision. By preparing for a rollback now, NASA should be able to complete that operation Monday night, careful enough to get the SLS rocket into a protected space and send its employees home before Ian directly affects Florida.

Over the next 24 hours, agency decision-makers can monitor the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts, as well as launch US Space Force weather officials in Florida on Ian’s prospects.

Much of the forecast model guidance has shifted west during the last few runs, and if this trend were to continue, it’s likely NASA could experience mild enough weather at Kennedy Space Center to keep its rocket at the launch site. exposed to the elements. This is far from guaranteed, however, as the forecast for Ian’s position by the middle of next week remains highly uncertain.

According to the latest forecast from the Miami-based National Hurricane Center, Ian is expected to hit Florida’s west coast as a major hurricane on Wednesday or Thursday. NASA’s facilities at Kennedy Space Center remain in the “cone of uncertainty” published by the Hurricane Center. However, this cone is far from foolproof — the center moves outside the cone in about one in three forecasts, and hurricane effects typically extend well beyond the storm’s center. In addition, at the current hurricane center, NASA’s facilities would be on the “dirty” side of the storm, where the stronger winds and heavier rain are likely to occur.

The good news is that NOAA planes today will collect data from within and the environment around Ian to inform the nighttime forecast model runs. In addition, if the center of the storm is better defined, that will add confidence to the forecast for Sunday morning.