In less than a week, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked international outrage and severe sanctions from the United States and the European Union.
In an opinion column for USA TODAY last week, retired General Wesley K. Clark, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, Europe wrote: “NATO must be ready to recognize the new reality of a more hostile Russia. troops, logistics and emergency procedures, and deepening cooperation in the non-military realm.”
USA TODAY Opinion this week asked Clark for his perspective on what happens as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine unfolds. His conversation with editor Austin Bogues has been edited for length and clarity:
“It’s been very hard, but we’re still”: Life in Ukraine as Russian troops attack Kiev, Kharkiv
Q. What is Putin’s next move after it appears that his initial attempts to take the Ukrainian capital Kiev have been thwarted?
A. He’s going to use more powers. So far, he has used “forward detachments” to fathom Ukraine’s defenses and force the government to surrender. It hasn’t worked. Now he is bringing his main force forward, along with Belarusian troops. He will likely intensify his aerial activity and use heavy artillery strikes.
Q. How will the war end? Is there any possibility of a diplomatic solution?
A. A diplomatic solution is unlikely. It could end with a surprise attack on Kiev and a Ukrainian government-in-exile. Or it could end in a Russian withdrawal to face another operation. Or it could end with a demand from the West and the United Nations that Putin cannot ignore, because of sanctions and international pressure.
Q. What does the nuclear deterrent activation Putin issued on Sunday mean in practical terms?
A. This was a means to pressure Ukraine into possible negotiations and also a warning to the West not to intervene.
Q. Is there any chance the Ukrainians can win? What would that look like?
A. The Ukrainians could win if hot, wet weather and poor Russian logistics immobilize the Russian force and give them the means to attack and destroy it. Ukraine could also win if the West and international efforts force Putin to withdraw.
Q. What is the likelihood of the conflict escalating?
A. If Putin wins here, he will go after his next targets, Georgia and the Baltics. This causes escalation. At some point, as fighting intensifies in Kiev, the US may have to step in, even if it risks escalating.
Q. Will the sanctions imposed be effective in stopping Putin?
A. Sanctions could eventually stop Putin, but probably not immediately.
Commentary editor Austin Bogues serves on the editorial board of USA TODAY. Follow him on Twitter: @AustinBogues
You can read various opinions from our Board of Contributors and other writers on the Opinion front page, on Twitter @usatodayopinion and in our daily opinion newsletter. To comment on a column, send a comment to [email protected].
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Ukraine Win the War Against Russia? Former NATO commander answers.
