For Europe, the outcome of next week's US elections will have profound consequences. NATO funding is at stake, as is a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Projections suggest a trade war with Donald Trump could hit the GDP of the bloc's largest economy, Germany, by 1.5 percent. The future of big tech, on the other hand, is a side issue, but a fraught one. President Joe Biden's administration ushered in a new era of confrontation with the likes of Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia, all of which faced legal action during his time in office. A proposal to split up Google is still under consideration.
Unlike many other places in the world where American technology rules, these companies pay attention when the European Union makes new rules. In the Biden era, the EU found an ally in its ambitions to rein in big tech, says Max von Thun, director of Europe and transatlantic partnerships at the Open Markets Institute. “Under Trump, or actually even under [former president Barack] Obama felt that if the EU went too far, there would be a backlash from the US,” Von Thun explains, meaning that regulators felt that ordering companies to close down their operations did not meet the was orderly. “Whereas under Biden, because the US is pursuing these kinds of remedies, the EU thinks: well, we can do that too.”
Many in Brussels would like to see this coordination continue. Most Europeans rely on American search engines, scroll through American social media feeds and shop on American e-commerce sites. There have long been concerns that the dominance of the big five – Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft – is stifling European competition and shortchanging consumers. This is not just a problem for EU regulators. According to Democratic pollster Lake Research Partners, it is also on the minds of ordinary Americans. A survey of 600 likely voters in seven key states and Ohio found that 67 percent believe corporate power — and the lack of government counterbalance — is one of the country's biggest problems. With the new Digital Markets Act, Europe has made it clear that it intends to limit the reach of the technology giants. However, enforcing those new rules would be a lot easier with American buy-in.
The big tech politics in this election are messy. The titans of Silicon Valley are divided between Democrats and Republicans. During their campaigns, both Trump and Kamala Harris have been noncommittal about how they would regulate the world's largest companies. Trump has vaguely gestured that 'something' needs to be done about Google, to make the company 'more fair'. Harris has so far said nothing about whether she agrees with Democratic megadonor and LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman's characterization of the Federal Trade Commission's antitrust policy as a “war on corporate America.”
It is unclear to what extent Harris would continue Biden's relatively confrontational approach. Biden departed from the policies of his own running mate, Obama, who hit back at European control of Google and Facebook by accusing the bloc of protectionism and saying European companies “cannot compete.” Harris' own comments on antitrust have been sparse, although she has long expressed an interest in data protection. “I think Facebook has experienced tremendous growth and has prioritized its growth over the interests of its consumers – especially around privacy,” she said in a CNN interview in 2019. When asked whether the company should be broken down, she replied: “Yes, I think we need to look at that seriously.”
But major tech hawks in Brussels are closely monitoring Harris' ties to Silicon Valley. Her brother-in-law, Tony West, who serves as a close advisor, is Chief Legal Officer for Uber. The company announced in August that he would take an unpaid leave of absence to focus on the campaign. Google lawyer Karen Dunn has also been linked to Harris and prepared her for the ABC debate last month.
