In a bizarre twist of fate, the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) may inadvertently come to the aid of the West – and more importantly, Ukraine – by disrupting Putin's southern flank.
Exactly eight years ago, in December 2016, Aleppo finally fell to Assad and the Russians when the Syrian regime rained chlorine barrel bombs for seventeen days. This led to the surrender of 300,000 civilians, and the rebel fighters disappeared into Idlib province. Many of the civilians were later tortured and killed by the brutal Assad regime.
Since my last visit to northwest Syria in 2020, things seem to have been relatively quiet there, and especially since 2022, all eyes have been on Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine.
But it appears that the various rebel factions, especially the Free Syrian Army and HTS, have regrouped, rearmed and, above all, trained. These rebels we see today in Aleppo are not the loose fighters I saw in Idlib province between 2013 and 2020, but well-equipped units that seem to know what they are doing. There are rumors that Turkey is behind the resurgence of the Syrian opposition, but others may have helped as well.
The Russian “playbook” used in Ukraine was developed in Syria, and I saw firsthand as Assad and Putin attacked hospitals, destroyed energy infrastructure, and razed most of Idlib province. This scorched earth policy was designed to destroy the will of the population to resist – and it worked in Syria, but thank God not yet in Ukraine.
This was also the purpose of the chemical weapons attacks, which Putin also used with great success in Ukraine.
In my opinion, Assad is still in power because he used chemical weapons, and this has not gone unnoticed by Putin.
Meanwhile, just as the Battle of Kursk was Hitler's fatal overreach in 1943, Syria in 2024 could be a dangerous case of overreach for Putin. The modern tyrant wants to rule Europe and its surroundings in the same way. Syria is Putin's southern flank and has the strategically important port of Tartus, which he must save.
But Iran is now a greatly diminished ally after the defeat of Hezbollah. There are few other Iranian militias that can gallop to Assad's aid, and Israel will undoubtedly also look for opportunities to further weaken the regime in Damascus, which has been involved in many attacks on Israel.
On the face of it, this is potentially a difficult time for the West, as HTS is banned as a terrorist group by the UN and de facto by Washington and Westminster. But in the world of strategic geopolitics, anything that hastens the end of hostilities in Ukraine should probably be supported. HTS shunned Al Qaeda and Isis in 2016 and, unlike those jihadists, seems only interested in removing Assad from power. HTS does not seek to establish the caliphate that undid Isis, nor a Taliban-style government of the kind that is ruining Afghanistan.
According to my old contacts in Syria, there seem to be moderate groups besides HTS, especially the Free Syrian Army, who are trying to create a new “Arab Spring” for the civilians in Syria who have suffered so much.
This is not a perfect world. But if the situation in Syria can expedite a ceasefire on Zelensky's terms in Ukraine, and perhaps even lead to a fairer Syria, then I will whisper what I expect many Western governments are thinking: that this is probably a positive development is.
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