Speaking at the White House this week, President Biden said the United States has “reason to believe” that Russia was “engaged in a false flag operation” to use as an excuse to invade Ukraine.
A new report from the European Expert Association, a research group focusing on security in Ukraine, and the technology watchdog group Reset Tech said that since October, disinformation researchers had observed rumors circulating widely online and in Russian news media that could be the basis. for such an operation, or to help justify a military build-up.
Many of the rumors first started circulating on anonymous Telegram channels and then were repeated in televised statements by Russian officials, the report said. Others started with statements from Russian officials and were repeated on Telegram channels until they became topics of conversation among ordinary citizens.
“The rhetoric from the pro-Kremlin sources has become much more aggressive of late,” said Maria Avdeeva, research director at the European Expert Association.
At the request of The New York Times, the Global Disinformation Index, a nonprofit research group, independently evaluated the report and said the research appeared reliable.
Here are some of the unsupported claims the European Expert Association researchers found.
Unsubstantiated claim 1: Ukraine plans to attack a number of separatist-occupied areas with chemical weapons.
On December 21, Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that the Ukrainian military was preparing to attack two separatist-occupied areas in Ukraine. The next day, state news agency RIA Novosti released a report claiming, without evidence, that a stockpile of chemical weapons had been given to Ukraine by the United States, the researchers said.
Throughout January and February, the researchers said, Russian-backed media spread the rumor, which was reinforced on social media. “Chemical weapons are already present on the territory of Ukraine,” according to a message on an anonymous Telegram channel with 24,500 followers. The post was viewed by 7,000 people.
Unproven Claim 2: The Ukrainian army prepares to attack Donbas.
According to the investigators, Russian state media is spreading rumors that Ukraine’s armed forces are planning an attack on Donbas, the separatist region in eastern Ukraine, with the help of American, British and Polish mercenaries.
The rumor then spread on Facebook and YouTube. “The Ukrainian people are waiting for Mother Russia to free their younger sister from the Nazis and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” said a Facebook post that garnered nearly 100 likes. On YouTube, a video spreading the same unproven claim garnered more than 31,600 views.
Unsubstantiated claim 3: Nuclear power plants are the center of an American conspiracy.
In this story, the Russians accuse the Ukrainians and Americans of planting a false flag.
As of January 30, all 15 of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants have been generating electricity, marking the longest period of full nuclear power utilization in the country. That comes at a time when the Ukrainian authorities decided to cut off the grid connection with Belarus and the Russian Federation and were executing the plan to do so.
Russian state media began to spread the idea that Ukraine was overestimating its ability to meet its energy needs and that the country’s nuclear facilities were in urgent need of repair. The Russian media suggested that Western countries could organize to attack the nuclear facilities and put the blame on Russia.
On February 12, a Telegram station with more than 15,000 followers posted that the British Special Air Service was preparing an attack on one of Ukraine’s power plants.
And on Feb. 15, the Telegram channel of a Russian war correspondent, Aleksander Kots, claimed that Ukraine had requested special equipment from the United States to help mitigate a potential natural disaster, including to help with radiation and chemical fallout, according to the researchers. mr. Kots added the baseless accusation that the Ukrainians were concocting a false flag event — accusing Russia of preparing a terrorist attack on a nuclear power plant. His comments were seen by 83,900 people on Telegram, the researchers reported.
